994
FXUS62 KTAE 060247
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 947 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S
BACK IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
OVER THE WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE WEST BREEZES INCREASE AND
CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SCA FOR THIS EVENING, WHILE HOISTING
A NEW SCA STARTING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
COLD. WARMER. POTENTIALLY STORMY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT'S OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN A NUTSHELL.
A COOL NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. A BREATH OF WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. IT'LL BE VERY CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, OR WIND CHILLS BELOW 25
DEGREES, BUT WE'LL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE IT FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL,
SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS KICK UP FRIDAY AND WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WARM-UP THAT
SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER, IT WON'T
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT COOLER
WEATHER FOLLOWS IT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF COOL SPELL OVER THE WEEKEND
THAT SEES WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE FORECAST AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN BUILDS AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND INTO OUR
NECK-OF-THE-WOODS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES AROUND THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO HEAD OUR DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, WITH A NUMBER OF THEM BEING
INFLUENCED BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. SO, IN THE WORDS OF AL
FROM ANGELS IN THE OUTFIELD... WE'RE ALWAYS WATCHING. AND WE'LL
DEFINITELY WATCH NEXT WEEKEND'S SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER (RAIN/STORMS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE BACK EDGE OF THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL EXIT VLD IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A LACK OF ANY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT
DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY ALMOST AS SOON AS THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION BREAKS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WESTERLY
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL THEN FRESHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, BECOMING STRONG DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AND TURN EASTERLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINRH WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT FRIDAY BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DROPS MINRH VALUES TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH RATHER BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AT 20 TO 30MPH.
NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 20MPH ARRIVE SATURDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 31 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 38 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 29 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 29 63 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 30 64 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 30 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 62 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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