472
FXUS62 KTAE 061328
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 824 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS FL PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S
BACK IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
BIGGEST UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO KNOCK DEW POINTS DOWN A
BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A 500MB PERTURBATION LOOKS TO QUICKLY ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THIS PV MAX IS
CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL BE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THIS PERTURBATION WILL DRAG DOWN WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR IN THE FORM OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IT WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INDUCE A COUPLE SHOWERS, HOWEVER, SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.
GIVEN THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT'LL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
30S, WITH LOW 30S AND SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND SW
GEORGIA SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGHOUT THE FOLLOWING WEEK WE'LL SEE
TEMPS INCREASING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS WEEKEND CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND SUNSET, FUTURE TAF
UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING SHOULD CONFIDENCE
INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WESTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
BECOMING STRONG THROUGHOUT TODAY. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
AND TURN EASTERLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINRH WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DROPS MINRH VALUES TO BETWEEN
25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH RATHER BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AT
20 TO 30 MPH. NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARRIVE
SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.
LOW DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 42 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 44 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 38 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 63 37 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 40 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 63 42 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 45 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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