138
FXUS62 KTAE 071143
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
643 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
- MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE
OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE SUWANEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AND ALL LEVELS OF
SWIMMERS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO MOVE OVERHEAD. FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
INDUCE A COUPLE SHOWERS, HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL NORTH OF THE REGION
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA.
ONE LAST COLD NIGHT STANDS IN BETWEEN US AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PEAK TONIGHT AS WINDS GO
CALM OR NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S BUT THESE ARE THE
SETUPS THAT TYPICALLY OVERPERFORM, THUS WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S
COULD BE POSSIBLE. AFTER TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN AWAITS
FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WARMING INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY, A WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COOLER NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
GOOD DISPERSION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS SUNDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLOWER RECOVERY OF DISPERSION THROUGH THE
DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SUCH THAT AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY
HAVE LOW DISPERSION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY LOW RHS
REGION-WIDE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN IS WEDNESDAY, IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 37 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 32 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 58 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 31 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 39 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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