021
FXUS62 KTAE 071726
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1226 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES OR EQUIPMENT THAT MAY CAUSE SPARKS
AS FIRES MAY SPREAD EASILY.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
LEADING TO CALM, QUIET WEATHER. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. MAIN
CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHEN COMBINED
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AREA-WIDE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING AND MORE MOISTURE
WILL RETURN. HIGHS WILL RISE BY ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO RISE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 50S DURING THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL OVER THE COLD SHELF
WATERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FAVOR FOG FORMATION DURING THE NIGHTTIME
AND MORNING HOURS, STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LITTLE
SHORTWAVES PASSING NEARBY OR OVERHEAD, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, PROSPECTS FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR VERY
LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TURN MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOCK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS, TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WITH POOR RH RECOVERY ONLY UP TO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. CRITICALLY LOW
RH IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S EVERYWHERE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND
3,000 FEET WILL LEAD TO POOR DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. TRANSPORT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AROUND 5-10 MPH. HOWEVER,
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE STILL BE LOW ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
EASTERN BIG BEND AS COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR MOVE OFF THE COLD GULF
WATERS. THUS, DISPERSIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE POOR, BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S EAST TO THE MID 40S. BETTER DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THUS, THE ONLY
HYDROLOGIC CONCERN REMAINS THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 37 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 60 32 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 60 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 31 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 39 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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