105
FXUS62 KTAE 081440
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF WORKING WITH OPEN FLAMES OR EQUIPMENT THAT MAY CAUSE SPARKS
AS FIRES MAY SPREAD EASILY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES, FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INDUCE A COUPLE SHOWERS, HOWEVER,
SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY. IN THE SHORTWAVE'S WAKE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE REGION
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
BEING THE DRIVERS OF UNCERTAINTY. WE'LL MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS MODELS COME INTO FOCUS.
TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A LONG-AWAITED WARMING TREND. DAYTIME
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WARMING INTO THE MID 70S
BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP. OVERNIGHT ECP COULD SEE VSBYS LOWER
DUE TO PATCHY FOG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WINDS OVER THE OPEN GULF WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THEY CLOCK AROUND
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREVAILING
THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
CRITICALLY LOW RH IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S EVERYWHERE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 3,000 FEET WILL LEAD TO POOR DISPERSIONS AREA-
WIDE TODAY. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY
AROUND 5-10 MPH. HOWEVER, MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE STILL BE LOW ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE EASTERN BIG BEND AS COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR
MOVE OFF THE COLD GULF WATERS. THUS, DISPERSIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE POOR, BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE MID 40S. BETTER DISPERSIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 41 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 47 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 63 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 37 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 58 45 62 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page