586
FXUS62 KTAE 090541
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1241 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
- FOG RETURNS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
A LOW (10 TO 30%) CHANCE OF THERE BEING POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S EACH AFTERNOON; OVERNIGHT
LOWS CREEP UPWARD FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 TONIGHT TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR RAIN
NEXT WEEKEND BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC.
A LOOK AT THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES WEST A BIT
MONDAY, ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE OVERHEAD MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, NO RAIN IS
FORECAST MONDAY. THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS A SKOOSH BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A FEW PERTURBATIONS ROLL OVER THE TOP OF IT. COMBINE
THAT WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON THE HEELS OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WITH THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE IS FOG.
THE WARMER, MOIST AIR ROLLING OVER THE CHILLED SHELF WATERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APALACHEE BAY SHOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF SEA FOG, AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE REFS,
WHICH HANDLED OUR FOG EVENTS IN LATE-DECEMBER/EARLY-JANUARY FAIRLY
WELL, IS HIGHLIGHTING A LOW (10 TO 30%) CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A HIGH (>70%) CHANCE AT FOG MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, MORESO FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MORNING FOG
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT AN H5 TROUGH DIVING OVER CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK
BEFORE TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BEYOND THAT, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE H5 TROUGH AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW GOES. A
LOOK AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST OF THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHICH WOULD BE
MORE OF A RAIN-MAKER FOR OUR AREA. ON THE FLIP SIDE, A HANDFUL OF
THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A MAJORITY OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRACK THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO MORE OF A STORMY WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS MODELS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A BRIEF TEMPO LATER THIS MORNING AT ECP WAS INCLUDED FOR
POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM PATCHY FOG, HOWEVER, CLOUDS
OVERHEAD COULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT TO MORE SOUTHERLY
MONDAY, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREVAILING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR APALACHEE BAY, INCREASES
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
CRITICALLY LOW RH IS FORECAST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN MONDAY WITH MINRH FORECAST
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 10S TO MIDDLE 20S. RH ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING SOME
SURFACE MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE A CONCERN
ALONG THE GULF COAST THANKS TO THE COLDER WATERS OF THE GULF, BUT
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND MONDAY. WHILE
DISPERSIONS REMAIN POOR ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
FAIR TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND AS WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS DEVELOP. SOME FOG
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE AT FOG, SOME DENSE, ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
LOOKING AHEAD, WE'RE MONITORING A STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND THAT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. THERE'S A LOW (LESS
THAN 20%) CHANCE OF ANYONE IN OUR AREA RECEIVING MORE THAN 1.0" OF
RAIN AT THIS TIME. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND AS
OUR AREA CONTINUES TO DEAL ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 46 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 53 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 71 49 74 56 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 70 46 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 43 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 72 39 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 50 65 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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