780
FXUS62 KTAE 092354
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
654 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
- FOG RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS WARM
MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF. POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY. IF TRAVELING, SLOW DOWN AND GIVE
YOURSELF ENOUGH TIME. EXPECT DELAYS WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE UP 20-25
DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY, HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASE IN
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE, THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FOG FORMATION, AND THEN HOW LONG
IT LASTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY LAYS A
GOOD FRAMEWORK FOR THIS, WITH ITS DEPICTION OF TIMING AND WHERE
CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS HIGHEST. THE EARLIEST FOG FORMATION THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF WALTON AND BAY
COUNTIES, WHERE THE CHILLED BAY AND GULF WATERS WILL HASTEN FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH S-SW FLOW CARRYING LOW STRATUS ONSHORE AND
INLAND. FOR TUESDAY MORNING, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND DENSEST FOG AT
SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OVER TO
NEAR ALBANY AND LEESBURG, GEORGIA. SO WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
BE CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS SOON AS ABOUT
9-10 PM ET IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS AS A STARTING POINT. THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL THEN HAVE AN OPTION TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY IF
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE AND BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS. A DECAYING SHORTWAVE
ATTEMPTS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT A LOW-END (20-30%) CHANCE OF BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST.
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY THIS WEEK SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE LOW-MID 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S
AND 50S.
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY MARINE WINDS BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
COMPARATIVELY COOL GULF SHELF WATERS, FORMING FOG NEAR THE COASTLINE
AND ADVECTING IT INLAND. ADVECTION FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
MECHANISM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEK, WITH MORE
RADIATIONALLY-DRIVEN FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INLAND WHERE WINDS GO
CALM. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE IN OUR
NORTH / NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES, WITH A SECONDARY AREA ALONG THE
FL BIG BEND. REGARDLESS, MAKE SURE TO PLAN FOR POSSIBLE MORNING-
TIME TRAVEL DELAYS AND DISRUPTIONS THIS WEEK AS VISIBILITIES MAY
FREQUENTLY DROP <1MI - ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL REGIONS AND IN THE
FL PANHANDLE AS A WHOLE.
THE NEXT AND PERHAPS MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND.
ENERGY ORIGINATING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST LATER THIS WEEK DEVELOPING INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH
OR CLOSED LOW FEATURE. THE CONCERN WITH THIS SETUP WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH. DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY AT THIS POINT AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM'S
PROXIMITY TO THE REGION, ITS AMPLITUDE / ORIENTATION AT ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH, AND THE DEGREE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THAT OCCURS. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
DICTATE HOW MUCH SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING IS AVAILABLE AND
THUS THE POTENTIAL (IF ANY) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WIDE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH AT
THIS POINT. CHECK BACK HERE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECASTING
CHALLENGE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED 20-25 DEGREES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS, HIGHLIGHTING THE INCREASE IN SHALLOW, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOG WILL FORM FIRST NEAR THE
PANHANDLE COAST AND THEN EXPAND INLAND AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS PUTS ECP FIRST IN LINE FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS, FOLLOWED
BY THE OTHER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG
AT SUNRISE IS AT DHN. FOG WILL THEN LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING, LEAVING AN AFTERNOON WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AND THICK HIGH CIRRUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE-WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG,
ESPECIALLY FOR APALACHEE BAY, INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
LOW DISPERSIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WITH FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS FORECAST INLAND ON TUESDAY. MINRH VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEE MINRHS DROP TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 30%) FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25
TO 35 PERCENT. FOG, SOME DENSE, IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10". BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.0" OF
RAIN INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY, OR NOW A 10 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND AS OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO DEAL ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 46 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 53 70 58 72 / 0 0 0 20
DOTHAN 50 74 58 75 / 0 0 10 30
ALBANY 47 74 56 74 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 44 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 30
CROSS CITY 39 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 50 65 55 68 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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