259
FXUS62 KTAE 110127
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
827 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 813 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
- FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS
AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF.
MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD LEAVE EARLY SO YOU HAVE TIME TO SLOW
DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 826 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
HAVE DONE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
GUIDANCE WITH THE LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL BE COMING IN LATER TONIGHT.
GENERALLY, THIS AMOUNTED TO EXPANSION OF THE POP FIELD, THOUGH QPF
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIGHT... AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN 1/10 INCH
FOR MOST, WITH UP TO 1/4 INCH IN THE LUCKIEST SPOTS.
OTHERWISE, THE FOG PICTURE IS A BIT MORE MUDDLED TONIGHT. FACTORS
WORKING AGAINST FOG ARE THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND. WIND TENDS TO
KEEP FOG STIRRED UP INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK. FACTORS IN FAVOR OF FOG
ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S, PLUS WINTER-CHILLED GULF WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WIND IS LESS
OF A DETERRENT TO SEA FOG THAN RADIATION FOG. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM TALLAHASSEE EAST AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AT SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT, AS WELL AS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TONIGHT WITH WARM, MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER
THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY CAUSES
FOG TO START ALONG THE COASTLINE AND PUSH INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG ON FOG POTENTIAL, BUT PERSISTENCE FROM
LAST NIGHT TIPS THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST SOME FOG OCCURRING
AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE'LL
DEFER ANY DENSE FOG ISSUANCE TO LATER SHIFTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HONING IN ON THE NEXT MEANINGFUL
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50
KNOTS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY MANAGES
TO PUSH INLAND TO PROVIDE US WITH A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO. THE 13Z NBM CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(30-50%) OF CAPE > 500 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 850 MB WINDS >
45 KNOTS ARE 30- 40%. STAY TUNED OVER THE FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES.
CONCEPTUALLY, IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS, THEN IT'S MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN HALF GIVEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY FROM
THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. THE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
BADLY NEEDED WITH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 826 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THANKS TO SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW, SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR SCT-BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 826 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MOST LIKELY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS (10-
30 PERCENT) TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS TEMPORARILY
ARRIVES THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND, 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IF IT
OCCURS GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 77 53 72 / 20 30 10 0
PANAMA CITY 58 72 55 71 / 10 10 10 0
DOTHAN 59 77 50 69 / 20 30 10 0
ALBANY 58 77 46 69 / 40 30 10 0
VALDOSTA 54 77 50 71 / 30 50 20 0
CROSS CITY 48 73 53 75 / 0 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 56 68 55 66 / 0 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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