281
FXUS62 KTAE 251732
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF BEACHES
FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW THE BEACH FLAGS
AND ADVICE OF BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ACROSS THE COASTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM
TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.
MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH AFTERNOONS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
ARE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 751 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PASSING SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A TALLAHASSEE, FL
TO ALBANY, GA LINE. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
AFTER A CHILLY START, A CONTINUED WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH CIRRUS ATOP STRATOCUMULUS,
AND A PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
FROM THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH AFTERNOONS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER CHANCE ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS NIL. MUCH WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S, REBOUNDING TO INLAND HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ON THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT ELEVATED WINDS ARE KEEPING THAT POTENTIAL LOW.
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF BEACHES
FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW THE BEACH FLAGS
AND ADVICE OF BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
MORNING FOG, FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (THE LATTER IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION). A GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY, SEASONABLY HIGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT AND INSTABILITY HAS COME UP ON RECENT
MODEL RUNS. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GREATER ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES POINT TO WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
A DRYING TREND ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH
WE MAY HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER IN EASTERN AREAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DESPITE A STRATUS DECK MOVING OVERHEAD
FROM THE GULF. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF ECP AND
ARE HEADING THEIR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
HEELS OF A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT'S CREATING GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS DIE DOWN TONIGHT, BUT MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING AT KDHN AND KABY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY AS CEILINGS BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY, OUR SHORT PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS QUICKLY COMES TO AN END, AS FRESH
SOUTHWEST BREEZES DEVELOP. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO
50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ACROSS THE COASTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, SEA FOG MAY RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER APALACHEE
BAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS, AS
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH
BREEZES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS LEADING TO HIGHER
SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE RECENT DRY AIR MASS BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT TODAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS UNDERWAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND THURSDAY IN TERMS OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS,
INCREASING RH/CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WETTING RAINS THURSDAY SHOULD
HELP OFFSET THAT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST, AND POSSIBLY ON
THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON MIXING HEIGHTS. LOOKING AHEAD, A SLOW
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WETTING RAINS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC WINDS. A
DRYING TREND BEGINS ON SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE
IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.3" AT KTLH PER THE SPC'S SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FRONT IS ALSO SLOWING AS
IT ENTERS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER FLOW INCREASINGLY PARALLELS IT.
AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL WITH QUICK RUNOFF OVER THE
DRY GROUND LEADING MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 72 61 74 / 20 40 60 90
PANAMA CITY 61 72 62 73 / 30 40 70 80
DOTHAN 57 75 61 72 / 30 50 80 90
ALBANY 56 73 59 71 / 40 60 80 90
VALDOSTA 52 74 59 75 / 10 40 60 90
CROSS CITY 49 75 56 78 / 0 10 30 70
APALACHICOLA 61 69 62 71 / 20 30 60 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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