251
FXUS62 KTAE 251932
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING OR IMPROVE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE
OF BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS OVER THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, MORE SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY, AND FINALLY A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ON FRIDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD END
UP ON THE STRONGER SIDE IF WE END UP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
THEREFORE MORE HEATING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT EVEN THESE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING GIVEN
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO NOT LIKELY TO
PROVIDE ANY RESPITE FROM THE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, A DRIER BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY COOLER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE FELT IN THE LOWER HUMIDITY WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DESPITE A STRATUS DECK MOVING OVERHEAD
FROM THE GULF. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF ECP AND
ARE HEADING THEIR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
HEELS OF A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT'S CREATING GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS DIE DOWN TONIGHT, BUT MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING AT KDHN AND KABY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY AS CEILINGS BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. A BIT OF SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN APALACHEE
BAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE ON SPATIAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE HIGH
DISPERSIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE MAXING OUT DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING OR IMPROVE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 72 61 74 / 20 40 60 90
PANAMA CITY 61 72 62 73 / 30 40 70 80
DOTHAN 57 75 61 72 / 30 50 80 90
ALBANY 56 73 59 71 / 40 60 80 90
VALDOSTA 52 74 59 75 / 10 40 60 90
CROSS CITY 49 75 56 78 / 0 10 30 70
APALACHICOLA 61 69 62 71 / 20 30 60 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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