403
FXUS62 KTAE 261141
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A LOW
(20 TO 30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING OR IMPROVE ONGOING
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER APALACHEE BAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATER TODAY, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING FOR THUNDER.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH;
MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S REBOUND TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE
COOLER GULF COAST.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT, A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG LIKELY AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY THE FL COUNTIES.
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW THE BEACH
FLAGS AND ADVICE OF BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (THE
LATTER IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION). WHILE SEASONABLY
HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK,
AND INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POINTING TO
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
A DRYING TREND ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH
WE MAY HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER IN EASTERN AREAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR ECP TO DHN TO ABY, AND THESE TYPES OF SHOWERS WILL BE A
CHALLENGE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT VLD TODAY. THEN THIS EVENING AS
THE AIR MASS MOISTENS FURTHER, IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY, A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA TOWARD DHN AND ABY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD BE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AS THEY ARRIVE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
FRESH SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY APALACHEE BAY
WHERE THEY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET.
BY TONIGHT, SEA FOG MAY RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER APALACHEE BAY. A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH BREEZES
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO HIGHER SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HIGH DISPERSION ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. POCKETS
OF LOW DISPERSION ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY. WHILE THERE
MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY IN TERMS OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
FUELS, INCREASING RH/CLOUD COVER AND WETTING RAINS SHOULD HELP
OFFSET THAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN THIS
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
ON TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH THE RANGE IN AMOUNTS MAINLY DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS ALSO SLOWING DUE TO THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW INCREASINGLY PARALLELING IT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2" OF RAINFALL, DUE TO TRAINING OF
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN QUICK RUNOFF OVER THE DRY
GROUND, LEADING TO ISOLATED MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, WHICH
IS NOT THAT IMPACTFUL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 60 75 57 / 40 50 90 50
PANAMA CITY 72 62 73 56 / 40 60 80 40
DOTHAN 76 61 73 55 / 60 90 90 30
ALBANY 73 60 72 54 / 60 90 90 40
VALDOSTA 75 58 75 56 / 20 60 90 60
CROSS CITY 74 55 78 56 / 0 20 60 60
APALACHICOLA 70 62 71 57 / 30 40 80 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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