181
FXUS62 KTAE 262130
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A LOW (20 TO
30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
UNLIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING OR IMPROVE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A SUBTLE PERTURBATION AT 500MB WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL
HAIL. SEA FOG MAY RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE,
GENERALLY ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
POST-FRONTAL, TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
FAIRLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
INCREASINGLY WET TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF A LARGER SWATH OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THIS SWATH OF CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVEN BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF IFR TO EVEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE,
COVERAGE, AND LONGEVITY ARE ALL FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
TONIGHT SEA FOG MAY RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER APALACHEE BAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT CLOCK AROUND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, THEN
MORE OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH BREEZES POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HIGH DISPERSION ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. POCKETS
OF LOW DISPERSION ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY. WHILE THERE MAY
BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY FUELS, INCREASING RH/CLOUD COVER AND WETTING RAINS SHOULD HELP
OFFSET THAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN THIS
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 72 57 73 / 50 80 60 10
PANAMA CITY 62 73 56 73 / 60 70 50 10
DOTHAN 61 69 55 72 / 80 90 40 10
ALBANY 59 68 55 71 / 80 90 40 10
VALDOSTA 58 72 56 72 / 50 90 70 20
CROSS CITY 56 78 57 76 / 10 50 70 30
APALACHICOLA 61 70 58 70 / 40 60 60 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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