609
FXUS62 KTAE 271715
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1215 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25-1 INCH AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE
ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. ALSO, LEANED A LITTLE HARD ON THE NAM AND CAMS FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
SE ALABAMA, WHERE SOME LATE-DAY SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A BIT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND
MAINLY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE TIMED OUT THE END OF THE RAIN, WHICH SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL BE
A BIT TRICKY AS THEY'RE VFR FOR NOW, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
MVFR ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND AFTER SUNSET. CALMING WINDS
AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FELT MOST CONFIDENCE
GOING LIFR TO VLIFR IN SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR KDHN AND KABY WITH
IFR TO LIFR ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VISIBILITY AND TIMING OF
IT CAN BE EXPECTED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST, THEN MORE OUT OF
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH BREEZES POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD, A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
IN GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP 0.25-1 INCH OF
RAIN TODAY WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, MAINLY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS MAY RESULT IN QUICK RUNOFF OVER THE DRY GROUND, LEADING TO
ISOLATED MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS SYSTEM.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 57 73 53 / 90 40 20 0
PANAMA CITY 71 57 74 55 / 80 30 10 0
DOTHAN 67 55 73 52 / 90 10 10 0
ALBANY 65 55 70 50 / 90 20 20 0
VALDOSTA 69 57 72 51 / 90 50 30 0
CROSS CITY 76 57 76 51 / 60 50 40 10
APALACHICOLA 70 58 69 56 / 60 40 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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