743
FXUS62 KTAE 271834
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UP TO 0.5
INCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE
ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING IN MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA BY THE
EVENING, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL SIT AROUND THE MID 50S. PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, KEEPING HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID
70S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CLOSER TO THE MID 60S OVER IN
SW GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA. MOVING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS,
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL STAY MORE
MODERATE INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AS
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND GRADUATE TRANSITIONS INTO SOME RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING TO
THE 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM MID 70S EARLY WEEK INTO MID
80S BY MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BUILDING RIDING WILL
SUPPORT A VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY WARM PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE TIMED OUT THE END OF THE RAIN, WHICH SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL BE
A BIT TRICKY AS THEY'RE VFR FOR NOW, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
MVFR ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND AFTER SUNSET. CALMING WINDS
AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FELT MOST CONFIDENCE
GOING LIFR TO VLIFR IN SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR KDHN AND KABY WITH
IFR TO LIFR ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VISIBILITY AND TIMING OF
IT CAN BE EXPECTED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST, THEN MORE OUT OF THE
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH BREEZES POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
ONGOING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR MOST
OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE ARE ONLY 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE, FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LOW DISPERSIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THANKS TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 3,000-3,500 FEET.
DISPERSIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY A BIT MORE AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE
FURTHER WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BY MONDAY,
TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE, AND, ALONG
WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS, DISPERSIONS WILL INCREASE TO GOOD TO
BORDERLINE HIGH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
MOST AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN TODAY HAVE RECEIVED UNDER AN INCH.
HOWEVER, THERE WERE A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. HOWEVER, THIS
HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE LOCAL DROUGHT CONCERNS. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY FIND ITS WAY
INTO THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND FLINT RIVER SYSTEMS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 57 73 52 / 90 40 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 56 74 54 / 80 30 0 0
DOTHAN 67 55 72 49 / 90 10 0 0
ALBANY 65 53 70 48 / 90 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 69 56 71 49 / 90 50 10 0
CROSS CITY 76 57 75 49 / 60 50 40 0
APALACHICOLA 70 57 69 56 / 60 40 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page