769
FXUS62 KTAE 280254
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RIP CURRENT AND MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UP TO 0.5
INCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE
ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
RAIN HAS FLEETED FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA SINCE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE STILL WORKING ITS WAY
EAST ALONG THE FL BIG BEND INTO SE GA. A VERY SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER ATOP SOAKED SOILS FROM PRECEDING RAINFALL IN A STABILIZED
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/CALM WINDS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR BLANKETING
FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME PARTS OF SE AL AND/OR SW GA, SO TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING IN MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA BY THE
EVENING, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL SIT AROUND THE MID 50S. PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, KEEPING HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID
70S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CLOSER TO THE MID 60S OVER IN
SW GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA. MOVING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS,
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL STAY MORE
MODERATE INTO THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AS
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND GRADUATE TRANSITIONS INTO SOME RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING TO
THE 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM MID 70S EARLY WEEK INTO MID
80S BY MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BUILDING RIDING WILL
SUPPORT A VERY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY WARM PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WITH THE RAIN ENDING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, ATTENTION TURNS TO
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
EXPECTED ACTIVITY SHOULD BLANKET ALL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE FL STATE LINE AND USHER IN IFR TO LIFR CONDS FROM THE PRE-
DAWN HRS UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING. AIRPORT MINS APPEAR MOST POSSIBLE
AT DHN/ABY. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN PLACE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF THE
THE GREATEST DEGRADED FLT CONDS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS
FCST BY TMRW AFTN AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NE 5-7 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
THE ATTENDANT CONVECTION WELL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF APALACHEE BAY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST, THEN MORE OUT OF
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH BREEZES POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY- LEVEL WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
ONGOING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR MOST
OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE ARE ONLY 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE, FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LOW DISPERSIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THANKS TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 3,000-3,500 FEET.
DISPERSIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY A BIT MORE AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE
FURTHER WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. BY MONDAY,
TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE, AND, ALONG
WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS, DISPERSIONS WILL INCREASE TO GOOD TO
BORDERLINE HIGH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
MOST AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN TODAY HAVE RECEIVED UNDER AN INCH.
HOWEVER, THERE WERE A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. HOWEVER, THIS
HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE LOCAL DROUGHT CONCERNS. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY FIND ITS WAY
INTO THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND FLINT RIVER SYSTEMS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 73 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 74 54 75 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 55 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 54 70 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 56 71 49 77 / 10 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 58 75 49 79 / 10 40 0 0
APALACHICOLA 58 69 56 69 / 10 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...YOUNG/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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