047
FXUS62 KTAE 011731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1231 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND. IF TRAVELING OR COMMUTING, THEN SLOW DOWN,
USE LOW- BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE YOUR FOLLOWING DISTANCE.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF REACHING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW ALL OF US TO AT
LEAST GET TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER
THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. SOME OF THE FOG
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
MONDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT TRICKY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75 IN GA AS WE MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS. IF ITS INFLUENCE IS
STRONGER AND/OR ARRIVES EARLIER, THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NAM AND ITS MET GUIDANCE
ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF
I-75. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE NBM WHICH HAS UPPER 70S. OPTED FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO BLEND IN SOME MET ALONG AND EAST OF I-75
WITH MOSTLY NBM ELSEWHERE. THIS YIELDS LOW TO MID 70S IN THE COOLER
SPOTS WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN US, BRINGING INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
BERMUDA, BRINGING PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW, KEEPING US WARM
AND HUMID. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 80S WITH POCKETS OF
UPPER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT, BY THIS WEEKEND WE'LL HAVE A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING RECORD HIGHS IN SEVERAL
SPOTS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES AWAY FROM
OUR AREA AS THE RIDE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE. THUS, WE DON'T HAVE
ANY SYSTEM TO BRING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. WHILE WE DO HAVE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK, THESE WILL MORE SO COME FROM
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, DAYTIME HEATING, AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE
RATHER THAN ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME LOW CEILINGS
AND PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT TLH/VLD, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER AT VLD AND QUITE LOW AT TLH. ANY
FOG OR LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL LAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN IN THE
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BREEZES MAY
FRESHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE NOCTURNAL EASTERLY
SURGES, BUT CHANCES OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE
DECREASING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH
DAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD EACH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
AND 40S. THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, ESPECIALLY ON THE PANHANDLE COAST,
WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY THEREAFTER. THUS, THERE ARE NO
FLOOD CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HYDROLOGIC
CONCERN WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING. FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON DROUGHT AND ITS LOCAL IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 49 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 75 53 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 76 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 76 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 77 46 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 79 49 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 57 69 59 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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