127
FXUS62 KTAE 021745
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF REACHING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEEK IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES, SOME FOGGY NIGHTS,
AND PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOG TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TOUGH TO COME BY AS WE'LL HAVE A SURGE OF
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT 5 MPH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE FOG MIXED OUT INTO LOW STRATUS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA
WILL SEND EASTERLY WINDS AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL BE
BLOCKED AND SEND SOME COOLER AIR DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE GREATEST
INFLUENCE OF THIS COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US 82. THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THESE AREAS, WHILE NBM SUGGESTS UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. GIVEN NBM'S PROPENSITY TO UNDERDO CAD SETUPS, HAVE
LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON NAM AND OTHER HI-RES MODELING TO LOWER HIGHS
INTO THE MID 70S NORTH OF US 82. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITHIN
THE HREF ENVELOPE, THESE FORECASTS LIE NEAR THE 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE. THUS, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF TEMPERATURES
UNDERACHIEVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES, EVEN AFTER
LOWERING TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND TUESDAY, A FEW FOGGY NIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY, AND WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE AREA. THUS, AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID
80S AND SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS
RISING INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A LOW (< 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE 90 BY SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES AND
TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RAIN CHANCES
ARE NOW 30% OR LESS FOR THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS LIKELY TO ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE EAST THIS NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A FEW HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL BE VLD,
ABY, DHN, AND TLH. LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS STRATUS DECK REACHING
SOUTH WEST ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE TO IMPACT ECP, SO HAVE JUST
INCLUDED SOME LOW SCT CLOUDS INSTEAD OF BKN/OVC TO COMMUNICATE THE
POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR STARTING
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW, BUT WINDS REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SEABREEZE,
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DROUGHT
CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN WITH SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING. FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON DROUGHT AND
ITS LOCAL IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 76 57 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 80 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 59 70 59 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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