660
FXUS62 KTAE 060602
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
102 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG, POTENTIALLY
DENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR
YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
- SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH. REMEMBER,
"WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!"
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE
THE CALENDAR SAYING THAT IT'S EARLY MARCH, OUR PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPART SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
RESULT IN SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO
SEE HOW FAR WEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAKES IT INTO OUR I-75
CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY COMMUNITIES. DCAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 800-1000 J/KG. THUS, STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 MPH. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST).
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
SATURDAY'S STORM COVERAGE IS GENERALLY LOWER WITH A BIT MORE SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE WIREGRASS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WON'T MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE
DAMPENS OUT , BUT WE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE
FAR WESTERN PANHANDLE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, IT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT OFF OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE OUR
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL BE BORDERLINE
HOT WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-50%) OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 FOR TUESDAY. SOME AREAS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TERRITORY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE
A SEVERE THREAT OR NOT AS THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. RAIN CHANCES THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ACTUALLY DECREASED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S (WITH POCKETS OF
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY). LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BRING LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
ECP/DHN NOW AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PAST
SUNRISE. FURTHER EAST AT ABY/TLH/VLD, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, MOSTLY AFTER 09Z, AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST A FEW HOURS PAST
SUNRISE, WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT RETURNING UNTIL AFTER
15Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ECP/DHN. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
AT DHN WHERE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA FROM 22Z TO 02Z REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH. DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER WINTER- CHILLED
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL ADVANCE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON, TURNING SURFACE WINDS MOVE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING AFTER
ITS PASSAGE. GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC HAZARD REMAINS THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 63 82 61 / 20 10 10 0
PANAMA CITY 79 63 78 63 / 20 0 10 0
DOTHAN 84 62 84 63 / 40 10 20 10
ALBANY 84 63 84 60 / 30 10 20 10
VALDOSTA 85 63 86 62 / 30 20 10 10
CROSS CITY 86 62 87 60 / 20 20 10 0
APALACHICOLA 72 63 72 62 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>010-012-108-
112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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