331
FXUS62 KTAE 061730
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG, POTENTIALLY
DENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR
YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
- SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH. REMEMBER,
"WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!"
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE
THE CALENDAR SAYING THAT IT'S EARLY MARCH, OUR PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPART SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
RESULT IN SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO
SEE HOW FAR WEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAKES IT INTO OUR I-75
CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY COMMUNITIES. DCAPE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 800-1000 J/KG. THUS, STORMS
THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 MPH. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST).
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
SATURDAY'S STORM COVERAGE IS GENERALLY LOWER WITH A BIT MORE SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE WIREGRASS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WON'T MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE
DAMPENS OUT , BUT WE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE
FAR WESTERN PANHANDLE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, IT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT OFF OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE OUR
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL BE BORDERLINE
HOT WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-50%) OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 FOR TUESDAY. SOME AREAS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TERRITORY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE
A SEVERE THREAT OR NOT AS THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. RAIN CHANCES THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ACTUALLY DECREASED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S (WITH POCKETS OF
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY). LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. A
SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED, WITH FOG/LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN ROLLING INTO KECP EARLY IN THE NIGHT BEFORE
SPREADING TO KDHN. ADDITIONAL FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH AROUND 14Z,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THOSE AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS
MORNING AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CWF SYNOPSIS: GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER
WINTER- CHILLED WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL ADVANCE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON, TURNING SURFACE WINDS MOVE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING AFTER
ITS PASSAGE. GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL ADVANCE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON, TURNING SURFACE WINDS MOVE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING AFTER
ITS PASSAGE. GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC HAZARD REMAINS THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 82 61 84 / 10 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 63 78 63 76 / 0 0 0 20
DOTHAN 63 83 62 80 / 10 20 10 50
ALBANY 63 84 60 82 / 20 10 10 30
VALDOSTA 63 86 61 86 / 30 10 10 20
CROSS CITY 62 86 60 84 / 20 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 62 72 62 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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