244
FXUS62 KTAE 071451
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG, POTENTIALLY
DENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR
YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
REMEMBER, "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!"
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
MADE SLIGHT EDITS TO TODAY'S HOURLY RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BMX/FFC SHOWS A
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 800 J/KG, MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.5 C/KM RANGE, AND A BIT OF WEAK
SHEAR. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
STRONG-GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA SO FAR
THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOCALIZED PATCHES ELSEWHERE. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR HOW FOG EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE FAR WESTERN AREAS STILL HOLDS.
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN A BIT MORE INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS (20-30%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE ENVIRONMENT YET AGAIN LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF A
FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 800-
1000 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF SBCAPE IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING
LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW, AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY (6.5-7 C/KM). THUS, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MOST PLACES IN
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED WITH A
MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE THAT THE FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE MUGGY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
SUNDAY, BUT WILL FAIL TO PUSH THROUGH AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRY TO APPROACH OUR
AREA SUNDAY MORNING, BUT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY MAY TRY TO AID IN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER, AND SHEAR IS
LACKING. THUS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE WEST TO THE MID 80S TO THE EAST.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR AREA.
WE'LL STILL SEE A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE RIDGING REALLY TAKES HOLD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES). THIS IS
NEAR RECORD-HIGH TERRITORY, AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 90-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20-30% FOR TUESDAY IN THE APALACHICOLA RIVER
VALLEY AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, BUT
STILL DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SPUR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US, WHICH MAY HELP INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS FOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH CLEARING
THE ENTIRE EASTERN US, WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY THE TAIL-END OF THE SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH THE AREA. IT'S ABOUT A 60/40 SPLIT RIGHT NOW IN THE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS OF
THE FORMER SCENARIO. OBVIOUSLY, WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO WATCH
THIS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 AND LOWS CLOSER TO 50.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BRINGING LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST A FEW
HOURS PAST SUNRISE, WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT RETURNING
UNTIL AFTER 15Z, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF
ECP/DHN AND POTENTIALLY VLD IN THE EAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AT DHN, ABY, AND
VLD WHERE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA FROM 22Z TO 02Z REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
APALACHEE BAY FOR PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG UNTIL 22Z. EMBEDDED SEA
FOG WITHIN A LOW STRATUS BANK IS ROLLING TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING VIA SATELLITE AND COASTAL WEBCAMS SHOW LOW VISIBILITY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO A MARINE DENSE
ADVISORY IS NEEDED LATER.
CWF SYNOPSIS: GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH. SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, CONTINUES TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS. WINDS, SEAS, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY. WINDS DECREASE
HEADING INTO MONDAY. DISPERSIONS BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH HIGH
NEAR I-75 ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WIREGRASS WITH GREATER COVERAGE WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY.
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC HAZARD REMAINS THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 61 84 63 / 0 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY 78 63 76 64 / 0 0 20 10
DOTHAN 84 63 78 63 / 40 10 60 30
ALBANY 84 61 81 62 / 20 10 40 20
VALDOSTA 86 61 86 62 / 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 72 63 73 64 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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