444
FXUS62 KTAE 082325
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD
YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
- LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
POPS WERE TWEAKED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT LESS ACTIVITY THAN
INITIALLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THIS MAY COME AS A SHOCK TO YOU, BUT MORE FOG IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE FOG REMAINS A BIT OF A
QUESTION, WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ANY OF OUR LAND AREAS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, OR 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS LOOKING... INTERESTING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (1" IN DIAMETER OR GREATER) AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWS A SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SAME AREA BEING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 250MB JET AND A SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING INLAND SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW RATHER STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH DECENT SPEED SHEAR ABOVE
3KM, SBCAPE OVER 1500-2000 J/KG, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0
C/KM. THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER LARGE HAIL.
IT'S NO WONDER THAT SPC COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA IN
CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP 1 (CIG1), WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" DIAMETER HAIL OR LARGER. ON THE DAMAGING WIND
SIDE, WEAK LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OF A HINDRANCE. HOWEVER,
MODELED DCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG IS ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ADD IN THE FACT THAT MODELED TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER 80S MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CAMS COULD BE UNDER DOING THE
DCAPE PARAMETER. IF THAT TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE, THEN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
ROCKET INTO THE 80S WITH A SEABREEZE PUSHING INLAND HELPING TO
"COOL" US OFF A BIT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
BELIEVE IT OR NOT, BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING EVEN HOTTER
THAN WE'VE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, A FEW LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES EITHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT'S FEELING MORE LIKE MAY, IT'S MARCH, WE PROMISE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN BARRELS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH IT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS TIME,
WE CAN TELL YOU THAT COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS
AND 40S, MAYBE EVEN SOME 30S, FOR LOWS. AFTER THIS PROLONGED STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER, THAT'LL FEEL SOMEWHAT CHILLY FOR A LOT OF US.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A PATTERN OF MVFR/VFR DURING THE DAY AND LIFR TO VLIFR OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE ON ONGOING CLOUD COVER, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KIND OF
CEILING/VIS RESTRICTIONS AT ALL AIRPORTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
HAIL POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SEA FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN UNTIL THEN WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS MONDAY WITH GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY, BUT HOT, WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS FORECAST AWAY FROM THE GULF
COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY, GA TO TALLAHASSEE,
FL AS A COLD FRONT NEARS OUR AREA; THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
DISPERSIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SEVERAL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA FIRE DISTRICTS. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THEN, THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MORE
THAN 1" OF RAIN ARE LOW, OR LESS THAN 30%. OTHERWISE, THE DROUGHT IS
LIKE THE ENERGIZER BUNNY... IT JUST KEEPS GOING, AND GOING, AND
GOING, AND GOING...
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 83 64 85 / 10 10 10 0
PANAMA CITY 64 78 65 79 / 20 10 0 0
DOTHAN 63 81 65 84 / 30 40 40 0
ALBANY 63 82 63 84 / 30 20 30 0
VALDOSTA 63 85 63 87 / 20 10 20 0
CROSS CITY 61 84 61 86 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 74 65 74 / 10 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR GMZ730-
735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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