494
FXUS62 KTAE 121331
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR OPEN GULF
WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA AS WELL AS ST. ANDREWS BAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS.
- CHANCES OF A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL
FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WHO HAVE PLANTED EARLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM ET. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST THROUGH APALACHEE BAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. GUSTY TO
STRONG WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BEYOND THIS AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE LITTLE OR SLOWLY FALL TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING I-65 EARLY THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. WE EXPECT THE LINE OF
STORMS TO ENTER OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES BY 2:30-3:30 AM CT.
THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS QUITE HIGH AT 50-60 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THUS, A TORNADO WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM ET/7 AM CT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. STRONG, POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ONCE IT GETS EAST OF THE RIVERS, SHEAR STARTS TO BACK
OFF, INSTABILITY WANES A BIT, AND THE SHORTWAVE STARTS TO DAMPEN
OUT. THUS, THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME POTENCY AND
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST. THE CAVEAT MAY BE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS THE STRONGEST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THEREFORE, WE STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS IF WE NEED TO LOCALLY EXTEND THE WATCH IN AREA AND TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH EXPECTED. WHILE NOT QUITE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL, SOME LOW-
END IMPACTS SUCH AS SMALL BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS BEING BLOWN AROUND CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALSO, IF THERE ARE
ANY FIRES, THE GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME CONTROL ISSUES AS WE'LL
QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, EXCEPT NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND. THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID WEATHER, THOUGH NOT
RECORD WARMTH AS HIGHS RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LARGER
PARENT TROUGH SWINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM DON'T APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WE'LL KEEP
WATCHING.
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (30-
70%) OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR A LATE-SEASON FRONT (36 OR LOWER)
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%
OR LESS) FOR A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IF
PLANTING HAS STARTED EARLY. ALSO, WE'LL HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENTLY A LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO TLH WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR THEN VLD TOWARDS 13-14Z. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
30-50 KNOTS THEN QUICKLY SWITCHING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE.
FURTHER WEST, SHOWERS REMAIN INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE ENTIRE AREA IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
30-40 KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH AND TIMED THE ENDING OF SHRA BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. VFR WILL RETURN
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THEN PREDOMINATE VFR AT ALL
SITES AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE (30% OR LESS) OF GALE-FORCE
GUSTS OVER OUR WESTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, EXCEPT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ST. ANDREWS BAY. WINDS SLACKEN HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE STORMS, DISPERSIONS BECOME HIGH
AS TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 20-30 MPH. WINDS BECOME
MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH LOW DISPERSIONS LIKELY. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 MPH OR SO, LEADING TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FAST MOTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER
AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. A COUPLE LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD SEE AS MUCH
AS AN INCH AND A HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK TO BRING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, ONLY UP TO HALF AN INCH AT MOST.
THUS, NO FLOOD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN
REMAINS THE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 44 74 51 / 90 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 47 71 53 / 80 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 41 69 47 / 80 0 0 0
ALBANY 69 40 69 46 / 90 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 42 74 49 / 90 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 47 80 55 / 80 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 52 68 57 / 80 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ730-755-
765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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