644
FXUS62 KTAE 122318
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
718 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN GULF WATERS AS
WELL AS ST. ANDREWS BAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS.
- CHANCES OF A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL
FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WHO HAVE PLANTED EARLY.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD, CLEARING OUR
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE OFFERING FRIDAY AND FOR
MOST OF US SATURDAY; THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. HIGHS FRIDAY
REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY PUSHING HIGHS CLOSE OR JUST OVER 80
DEGREES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR TO AROUND
40-60% WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG I75 AND THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. IN
THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEFORE
THE FRONT, HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE LOW 80S FROM
SATURDAY. AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO MONDAY, THIS WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHICH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM
HAS TRENDED COOLER ON TODAY'S MODEL RUN BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE LREF AND NBM DEPICTING A 30-50% OF A
LIGHT FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND 20-40% TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST TO ALONG I10 IS 30% OR LESS. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
36F OR LOWER FOR FROST ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH OF I10 AND 40-70% TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE PROBS DECREASE
SOUTH OF I10 FOR FROST BUT COULD INCREASE IF THE FORECAST TRENDS
COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FROST, HOWEVER,
MAY BE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY LOWER
THAN OPTIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR WITH NORTH WINDS SUBSIDING EARLY TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY
CLOCKING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ST ANDREWS BAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARING
OUR WATERS IN THE ENTIRETY BY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN DECREASE WHILE
SWITCHING TO EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. BY
THE WEEKEND AND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST, WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE HIGH
DISPERSIONS. SO MUCH SO THAT LOW DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
FRIDAY AS LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO LATER THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT MAY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.5-0.75 INCHES. THUS, NO FLOOD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN REMAINS THE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 46 76 52 / 90 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 48 72 53 / 70 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 41 71 47 / 70 0 0 0
ALBANY 69 40 71 46 / 90 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 43 75 50 / 90 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 48 80 55 / 80 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 52 68 57 / 80 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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