260
FXUS62 KTAE 280511
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
111 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL AGGRAVATE CONCERNS FOR
IMPACTFUL WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND THE
INLAND FL BIG BEND. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL FILL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT,
TURNING EASTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND A FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR UPDATES
WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT, CROSSING
OUR REGION AS A DRY, RAIN-FREE FRONT WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL COME UNDER THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, WHILE 925 MB WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGEST
SURFACE WIND GUSTS EASILY IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
MEANWHILE, A SLUG OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, ORIGINATING WELL UPWIND
IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY, EXPANDING
QUICKLY IN THOSE GUSTY NE WINDS INTO OUR ALABAMA, FL PANHANDLE,
AND INLAND BIG BEND COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE, SEASONABLE SPRING
WARMTH WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN IMPACTFUL WILDFIRES IN THE LAST
WEEK, AND TOMORROW'S WEATHER WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE FIRE
ENVIRONMENT AND SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. PLEASE SPREAD THE
MESSAGE TO AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY! A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
COASTAL AND SE BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY. IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE, OUR SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR WILL START TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS AND MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST ON MONDAY, FURTHER MOISTENING
THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. MEANWHILE, THE 500 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS
TODAY WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EVEN SO, THE CONTRIBUTION OF LATE MARCH SOLAR HEATING
AND THE MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY STARTING MONDAY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
FEW WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL AIR MASS MOISTENING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST,
PROMOTING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING CLOCKS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TODAY, GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS. MVFR ALREADY OCCURING IN
AT ECP AND EXPECT BRIEF LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE NE TO SW ACROSS MAINLY ABY-TLH-ECP LATE THIS AM THROUGH
THIS EVE. GUIDANCE STRONGLY HINTING AT MVFR CIGS VLD, WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL AT ECP/TLH, AND THIS IS INCLUDED INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING AT ECP, AND TO LOWER WIND GUSTS A BIT TODAY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO FRESH AND STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES ON SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SNAP AROUND EASTERLY AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY
AND SURGE EVEN STRONGER ON SATURDAY EVENING, WHEN A FEW GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY, THEN
MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGGRAVATE
THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING
READILY IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MEANWHILE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON,
SPREADING FIRST ACROSS GEORGIA DISTRICTS AROUND MIDDAY, THEN INTO
OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COUNTIES MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES ARE NOW UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS AND HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW INCLUDE TALLAHASSEE AND THE
APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN EASTERLY, BRINGING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
INFLUENCED AIR ACROSS THE DISTRICTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIR MASS.
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK STARTING MONDAY WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT
WEEK STARTING MONDAY. ANY RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY. WHERE IT OCCURS,
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, AND IT WILL
PROVIDE NO MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 57 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 73 50 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 71 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 74 51 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 76 58 72 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>014-016>018-027-108-
112-326-426.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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