079
FXUS62 KTAE 281839
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WINDY AND SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAN THE FIRE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SURGE THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW
GALE-FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND PROVIDE NO MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT RELIEF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH GEORGIA HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY THAN FORECAST, JUST EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP A STEADY
STREAM OF MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIR COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE VALDOSTA TO TALLAHASSEE CORRIDOR. SOLID CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
WEST IN THIS AREA, AND RADAR HINTS AT SOME DRIZZLE EAST OF VLD. SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RFW EARLY FROM
TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA. WE MAY YET CANCEL A FEW MORE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES EARLY.
ELSEWHERE, RH WILL NOT GET AS LOW AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST, BUT THE
WIND IS STILL GUSTY. IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRES
ALONG RAPIDLY. THE RFW WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE UNTIL 8 PM EDT, OR
7 PM EDT, LARGELY TO AVOID CONFUSING THE STILL-VALID MESSAGE OF
AVOIDING OUTDOOR BURNS IN THE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CLOCK AROUND DUE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, SPREADING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
SOURCED AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AFTER PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LAST 10+ DAYS,
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK
AHEAD. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEEK AHEAD STILL DOES NOT FEATURE
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT WE WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A 500 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE GETS
OFF TO OUR EAST, OUR MID-UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY,
ALBEIT STILL WEAK. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST, TURNING OUR
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL MOISTEN INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.4
INCH RANGE FOR THE WEEK, AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. STARTING
MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOCUSING SEABREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THE MOISTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OCCASIONALLY BOUNCE UP TO PW OF 1.5"
FROM MID-WEEK ON, WHICH WOULD BETTER SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
HOVERING IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE, SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSY
IN NATURE.
RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY THIS WEEK. THE SHORT-LIVED DURATION OF
PULSY CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL NOT ALLOW MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS
TO ADD UP TO REAL DROUGHT RELIEF. NONETHELESS, THIS IS STILL A
CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD EXCEPT AT VLD WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AGAIN EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING. 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED 10 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SNAP AROUND EASTERLY
AROUND SUNSET AND SURGE THIS EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME EASTERLY SURGE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. ONE MORE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY SURGE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN EASTERLY, BRINGING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
INFLUENCED AIR ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG, SUPPORTING HIGH DISPERSION OVER OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE
DISTRICTS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIR MASS. THE
AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO START GETTING CLOUD BUILDUPS, WEAK
AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM
STARTING MONDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, WHERE THERE IS RAIN, IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
STARTING MONDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 76 58 80 / 0 0 10 20
PANAMA CITY 57 75 61 77 / 10 0 10 10
DOTHAN 52 72 57 80 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 48 74 54 79 / 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 52 75 56 80 / 0 0 10 30
CROSS CITY 55 79 59 83 / 0 10 10 40
APALACHICOLA 58 72 62 73 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>014-016-108-112-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>158.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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