212
FXUS62 KTAE 290541
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
141 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WINDY AND SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAN THE FIRE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SURGE THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW
GALE-FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND PROVIDE NO MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT RELIEF.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CLOCK AROUND DUE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, SPREADING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
SOURCED AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AFTER PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LAST 10+ DAYS,
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK
AHEAD. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEEK AHEAD STILL DOES NOT FEATURE
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT WE WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A 500 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE GETS
OFF TO OUR EAST, OUR MID-UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY,
ALBEIT STILL WEAK. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST, TURNING OUR
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL MOISTEN INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.4
INCH RANGE FOR THE WEEK, AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. STARTING
MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOCUSING SEABREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THE MOISTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OCCASIONALLY BOUNCE UP TO PW OF 1.5"
FROM MID-WEEK ON, WHICH WOULD BETTER SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
HOVERING IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE, SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSY
IN NATURE.
RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY THIS WEEK. THE SHORT-LIVED DURATION OF
PULSY CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL NOT ALLOW MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS
TO ADD UP TO REAL DROUGHT RELIEF. NONETHELESS, THIS IS STILL A
CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT VLD LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AT THE REMAINDER
OF THE TERMINALS, MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT VLD, TLH, AND ECP;
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SNAP AROUND EASTERLY
AROUND SUNSET AND SURGE THIS EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME EASTERLY SURGE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. ONE MORE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY SURGE IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN EASTERLY, BRINGING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
INFLUENCED AIR ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG, SUPPORTING HIGH DISPERSION OVER OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE
DISTRICTS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIR MASS. THE
AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO START GETTING CLOUD BUILDUPS, WEAK
AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM
STARTING MONDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, WHERE THERE IS RAIN, IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
STARTING MONDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 58 80 62 / 0 10 20 0
PANAMA CITY 75 61 77 63 / 0 10 10 0
DOTHAN 72 57 80 60 / 0 0 20 0
ALBANY 74 54 79 60 / 0 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 75 56 80 61 / 0 10 30 10
CROSS CITY 79 59 83 60 / 10 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 72 62 73 64 / 0 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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