766
FXUS62 KTAE 290626
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SURGE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND PROVIDE NO MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT RELIEF.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FOR TODAY, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY, SPREADING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS, MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS THAT WOULD
HELP EASE THE DROUGHT ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE
GETS OFF TO OUR EAST, OUR MID-UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY,
ALBEIT STILL WEAK. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST, TURNING OUR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) VALUES WILL MOISTEN INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE FOR
THE WEEK, AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. STARTING MONDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE FOCUSING SEABREEZE FRONT. SOME OF THE MOISTER ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OCCASIONALLY BOUNCE UP TO PW OF 1.5" FROM MID-WEEK ON, WHICH
WOULD BETTER SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HOVERING IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE, SO
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE.
RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY THIS WEEK. THE SHORT-LIVED DURATION OF PULSY
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL NOT ALLOW MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS TO ADD UP
TO REAL DROUGHT RELIEF. NONETHELESS, THIS IS STILL A CHANGE FROM
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT VLD LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AT THE REMAINDER
OF THE TERMINALS, MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT VLD, TLH, AND ECP;
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. ONE MORE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TONIGHT, THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WINDS TODAY WILL TURN EASTERLY, BRINGING MOISTER ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED
AIR ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG, SUPPORTING HIGH DISPERSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIR MASS. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO
START GETTING CLOUD BUILDUPS, WEAK AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM STARTING MONDAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, WHERE THERE
IS RAIN, IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL
RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
STARTING MONDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 58 82 62 / 0 10 20 0
PANAMA CITY 75 61 78 63 / 0 10 10 0
DOTHAN 71 56 81 60 / 0 10 20 0
ALBANY 73 54 81 60 / 0 10 20 10
VALDOSTA 75 56 82 61 / 0 10 30 10
CROSS CITY 78 57 84 60 / 10 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 73 63 73 65 / 0 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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