087
FXUS62 KTAE 292320
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
720 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SURGE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY, PROVIDING NO
MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ISENTROPIC LIFT (I.E. WARM ADVECTION LIFT) IS CURRENTLY KEEPING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM THE TLH RADAR, WHICH SHOWS SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE 3,000 FEET
OVERRIDING COOLER EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS MECHANISM
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, KEEPING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A TRACE- AMOUNT SPRINKLE GOING.
ON MONDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND
WASH OUT, AS THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EVEN FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL LET OUR SURFACE WINDS CLOCK
AROUND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A WARMER AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 80S IS
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS, AS CONTINUAL REINFORCEMENT OF SHALLOW
COOL AIR ENDS.
DEEPER SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTER PW VALUES INTO THE 1.1 TO
1.3 INCH RANGE ON MONDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON, WE WILL START TO SEE CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A FEW LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND WEAK SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT
SATURDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EAST OF FLORIDA WILL SUPPORT WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST, KEEPING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GOING EACH DAY. THE LONG FETCH OR
REACH OF THE SE WINDS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
AIR MASS EACH DAY. BY ABOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PW VALUES WILL
HAVE SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY CLIMBED INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE,
COMBINING WITH WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OVERLAP, THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH SATURDAY WILL ONLY
MANAGE A MEAGER 10-20 KNOTS, SO INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WILL BE PULSY AND SHORT-LIVED.
IN THE MIDST OF OUR DROUGHT, ANY RAIN IS WELCOME, BUT AMOUNTS
THIS WEEK WILL FALL SHORT OF PROVIDING MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF.
WE STILL LACK A TRULY SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS THAT CAN BEEF UP
RAINFALL RATES, AND THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL LIMIT DURATION. THE HIGHEST QPF FROM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEK ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1/4" TO 1/2"
RANGE.
NEXT SUNDAY, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO CROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND GETTING INTO LA, MS, AND NW AL. ON ONE HAND,
GROWING PROXIMITY OF FRONTS OFTEN SUPPORTS AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND, OUR LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL EASE UP,
MAKING IT HARDER TO GENERATE MESOSCALE SOURCES OF LIFT TO AID IN
CONVECTION. UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH INFLUENCE WILL BE MORE
IMPORTANT, THE NET EFFECT IS SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AS
WITH MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOTED THIS EVENING ON AREA RADARS AND HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OPERATIONAL IMPACT TO THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THIS, GENERALLY VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH CIG HEIGHTS 040-070 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ONE MORE FRESH TO STRONG NIGHTTIME SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. IT IS BORDERLINE
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, SHOWING 20-22 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT IN TIME UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE U.S. MID- ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE ON MONDAY INTO A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL MOISTEN THE
AIR MASS ENOUGH TO START GETTING AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY FALL
SHORT OF BEING A WETTING RAIN. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO MANY DISTRICTS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEK STARTING MONDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND WILL
NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 81 62 83 / 10 20 0 20
PANAMA CITY 61 78 63 79 / 10 10 0 20
DOTHAN 57 81 61 83 / 10 20 0 40
ALBANY 55 80 60 84 / 10 20 0 30
VALDOSTA 56 81 60 85 / 10 20 10 30
CROSS CITY 58 84 60 86 / 10 30 0 40
APALACHICOLA 63 73 64 74 / 10 10 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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