486
FXUS62 KTAE 300659
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
- ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY THIS WEEK, PROVIDING
NO MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA MAINTAINS A
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FRONT, AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER
TODAY. BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AROUND 20%.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO FOCUS FROM
I-75 DOWN TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY. SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD STILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE,
BUT ALSO WILL MAKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS - FOCUSING OVER THE NW AND SE EDGES OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A "CONVECTIVE LULL" ON THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS CARVES OUT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE, THEN LIFTING NE. THIS
ACTIVITY ALOFT SENDS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DOWN THE
EASTERN US THAT USHER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, A RELATIVELY
WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO KICK OFF FOR US DURING THAT TIME, WHICH
WOULD BE WELCOME NEWS FOR OUR SIGNIFICANTLY DROUGHT-STRICKEN
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CIG HEIGHTS 040-070 TODAY THEN
LIFTING AOA 080 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY VEER AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KNOTS. A MORE WIND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP AT ECP/TLH
THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY DHN THIS EVENING WITH A SEA BREEZE
PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN ASCAT PASS AT 0225Z SHOWED ACROSS OUR WATERS SHOWED WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED 15-20-KT ENE WINDS WITH LOCALIZED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HRS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THE EVENING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.
NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE LIKELY EACH NIGHT WITH ONSHORE SEABREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY FRIDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO
FRESHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY
WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
PREVAILING MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST ONGOING DROUGHT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST. MINIMUM RH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE
COAST WHERE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS MORE MOIST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
LOOKING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS
PROBABILITIES LEANING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT 33-40%
MAINLY SOUTH TO SW OF THE AL WIREGRASS & FLINT RIVER VALLEY AS OF
MARCH 29TH - VALID APRIL 6TH-APRIL 12TH.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 64 84 62 / 20 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 76 65 77 63 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 81 60 85 61 / 20 0 40 10
ALBANY 81 62 83 61 / 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 81 59 85 62 / 10 0 30 10
CROSS CITY 82 59 86 60 / 20 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 75 65 75 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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