535
FXUS62 KTAE 310100
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A LITTLE LIKE SUMMER WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE TO SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SLOWLY ERODES AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
A CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE 1000-700MB RH AND MEAN WIND FLOW SUGGESTS
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA/FLINT RIVER BASINS BOTH DAYS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE H5 SHORTWAVE THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH US BEING ON THE SUBSIDENCE, OR WESTERN, SIDE OF IT, AND WILL
LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LOSE STEAM AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BRINGS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS IT STALLS OVER THE REGION AND LEAVES
BEHIND AMPLE MOISTURE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.
SO, HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE FORECASTING FOR THE 7 DAYS? MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS 0.25" TO 0.75" OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.25". IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY WEEKLY
RAINFALL LESS THAN 1.0" THIS TIME OF YEAR ISN'T EVEN KEEPING UP WITH
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION PRIOR TO
SUNSET BUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING LOCATION TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK FOR WHERE THE WINDS GO CALM. THE WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE SEABREEZE PASSAGE,
AFFECTING ECP, TLH, AND DHN TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY WHICH IS SHOWN BY
PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGES ARE
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL LATER EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS THANKS TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MITIGATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THANKS TO A MOIST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. THERE'S ALSO A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MINRH IS ALSO FORECAST TO RUN BETWEEN
40 TO 50 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO BETWEEN 35
TO 45 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WHEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT WORKS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND, AS THE CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN OVER 0.25" INCREASES
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE'S A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ANY ONE
LOCATION RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" ANY ONE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.75" ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA WITH LESS THAN 0.25" ELSEWHERE. AND WE NEED A LOT MORE THAN
THAT TO PUT A DENT INTO THE ONGOING DROUGHT AS WE NORMALLY RECEIVE
AROUND 1.0" OF RAIN PER WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 84 62 84 / 0 20 0 20
PANAMA CITY 63 79 64 80 / 0 20 10 30
DOTHAN 60 84 61 84 / 0 30 10 30
ALBANY 59 85 62 85 / 0 20 10 30
VALDOSTA 59 85 61 86 / 0 20 0 20
CROSS CITY 59 86 61 87 / 10 20 0 10
APALACHICOLA 64 73 64 74 / 0 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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