682
FXUS62 KTAE 181355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST
CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COME ON
MONDAY. PLEASE OBEY LOCAL BURN BANS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
UPDATES DON'T APPEAR NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE FIRST DAY IN A STRETCH OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAYS BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINATION OF NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED WINDS, LOW TO CRITICALLY-LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, AND HISTORIC DROUGHT (LEADING TO NEAR-RECORD FUEL
AVAILABILITY) IN PLACE. WHILE THE FORECAST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
RED FLAG WARNING ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXACTLY AT OUR CRITERIA, THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD AID IN THE RAPID SPREAD OF NEW
AND/OR EXISTING FIRES. ADDITIONALLY, FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS SEEN A NOTABLE UPTICK AS DAYS WITHOUT WETTING RAINS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND AT NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND FIELD
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. HOWEVER, IN MANY OF THESE AREAS, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA TO NOT
NECESSITATE AN ISSUANCE TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER
NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AN ONGOING
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSITIONED STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. ANY RAIN
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WHILE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN, THE WINDS AND ADVECTION OF
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL NOT. THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT WILL BRING OUR SECOND ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SUNDAY WILL BRING THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST REGARDING OVERALL
FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET
INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH (WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH) WILL MOVE IN, CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GO AGAINST MORE
CRITICAL CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, MORNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA COULD AFFECT HOW
EXPANSIVE THE CRITICAL CONCERNS END UP BEING. WE CONTEMPLATED A
WATCH FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT GIVEN THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY, WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE
STRONGER AND CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING THINNER, IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY
GIVEN CONTINUED WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, THIS IS WHEN WE'LL MOST LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST
FIRE RISKS AS ELEVATED WINDS (15 MPH W/GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH) BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY (BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND
15 TO 20%) DEVELOPS.
AFTER A STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RAIN, BUT
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP MORE
CRITICAL CONCERNS FROM DEVELOPING. UNFORTUNATELY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN TO THE REGION, ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY
AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITHOUT RAIN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS INVOF ECP/DHN/TLH THIS MORNING
AND ECP/DHN TMRW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TODAY NEAR
10 KTS, THEN START SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY VERY LATE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE FCST TO LOWER TO MVFR AT DHN/ECP AS WELL. LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRO'D IN THE 18Z PACKAGE DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING VARIABLE WINDS WITH
DOMINANT NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
AT FIRST BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. STRONG BREEZES WILL CLOCK
AROUND EASTERLY BY TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO AT LATE MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
TODAY, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER IN GEORGIA, WHERE RH WILL TANK TO NEAR OR
BELOW 30 PERCENT, WHERE WIND WILL EXCEED 12 MPH, WHERE DISPERSION
WILL EXCEED 90, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 88-92 DEGREES (WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS), AND WHERE THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX
EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT A TIME OF YEAR WHEN ITS CLIMATOLOGY
IS ALREADY NEARING ITS ANNUAL PEAK IN EARLY MAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NORTHERLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 MPH, AND RH WILL BE DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIR MASS ARRIVES. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHADING OF FUELS WILL BE
THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR ON SUNDAY, BUT CRITICAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMMONLY IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND SUPPORT
EXTREMELY HIGH DISPERSION. FULL SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY WARM LATE APRIL
TEMPERATURES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL
FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
WHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXCEED 15 MPH, AND THE WATCH
COULD BE EXPANDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY RAIN WITH THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BY A HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT AND
A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 64 79 54 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 81 66 76 55 / 0 0 20 0
DOTHAN 86 61 71 50 / 0 10 20 0
ALBANY 89 63 73 50 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 91 62 82 52 / 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 90 61 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 67 78 58 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ013-016>019-027-326-426.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ143>147-155>160.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ125-127>131-
145>148-156>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page