105
FXUS62 KTAE 181924
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
- MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WIND
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COME ON MONDAY. PLEASE OBEY LOCAL BURN
BANS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL- DEFINED COLD FRONT
NOW CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH REGION. IT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR SERVICE
AREA OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, BUT ANY RAIN WILL SHRIVEL UP AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. WHERE IT DOES
RAIN, AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 0.10 INCHES, WHICH IS
INCONSEQUENTIAL IN THE FACE OF LONG-TERM DROUGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLIES AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE FL STATE LINE AS
WE MOVE FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE ADDED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR PARTS OF SW GA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN SEEING AN OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY LOW RH AND THE WIND.
WAS NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A WATCH BEYOND THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
AREAS, DUE TO THICK HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THE LATE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR FURTHER SOUTH. AN RFW UPGRADE AND
EXPANSION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL STILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AM, AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL NOT
FULLY DECOUPLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POOR NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OF LESS THAN 70 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW
70 PERCENT, ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT DEW TO DEVELOP.
THE HEART OF THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MIN RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
AREAWIDE, GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S,
ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. A FEW POCKETS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20S WILL PROBABLY BE OBSERVED, GETTING US THE LOWER-END RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. IN ADDITION, SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RUN
IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AND HIGH-END DISPERSION VALUES
(THE LATTER ENHANCES THE FLOW OF FRESH OXYGEN-LADEN AIR INTO ANY
FIRES), MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER THE
LARGEST AREA IN THIS STRETCH.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY BACK TO MORE TYPICALLY GENTLE
LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALMOST AS DRY AS MONDAY.
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
WIND, BUT THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE ELEVATED.
100-700 MB LAYER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD
BERMUDA. SEABREEZES WILL START TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS FOR OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES, BUT MOISTENING WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY, AND FOR MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES
UNTIL FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION NEXT
SATURDAY, AIDED BY WNW FLOW ALOFT. GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS SUGGEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES MOST LIKELY IN THE 1.1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE IS WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE, THEN WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, LOOSELY ORGANIZING INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO. FOR NOW,
THE FORECAST HAS LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES NEXT SATURDAY... IN
THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WE'LL SEE CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LOWER WITH A CHANCE FOR REDUCED VSBYS AS WELL. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY ACROSS ECP/DHN/ABY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARDS RESULTING IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TLH/VLD. GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY EVENING, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH, THOUGH A NIGHTTIME WIND SURGE WILL KEEP BREEZES STRONG WELL
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON MONDAY EVENING, AND A
FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG EVENING SURGE IS EXPECTED. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA BIG
BEND, AS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MODERATE BREEZES, AND
LOW HUMIDITY ACT AGGRAVATE A FIRE ENVIRONMENT WITH DROUGHT-
STRESSED FUELS.
A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE SPREADING SOUTH, MAKING ENOUGH
INROADS INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR A CRITICAL OVERLAP OF GUSTY
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH NOW INCLUDES PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHADING OF FUELS WILL BE THE
MAIN INHIBITOR TO ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR ON SUNDAY. POOR NIGHTTIME
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THE HEART OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMMONLY IN
THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. DISPERSION WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. FULL SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY WARM LATE APRIL
TEMPERATURES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY WHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH 15 MPH,
AND THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS
WILL BE HIGH, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. HUMIDITY WILL START TO RECOVER OUR FLORIDA
DISTRICTS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SLOW RECOVERY NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
STATE LINE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
NEITHER DROUGHT RELIEF NOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ANY RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE
IS NOW A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT SATURDAY.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 77 52 80 / 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 75 54 80 / 10 10 0 0
DOTHAN 56 71 48 78 / 10 30 0 0
ALBANY 58 73 48 78 / 10 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 78 51 80 / 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 61 86 54 82 / 0 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 66 76 57 77 / 0 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ016>019-027.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ143>147-155>160.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ127>131-
145>148-157>161.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ120-122>129-144>146.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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