860
FXUS62 KTAE 191215
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
815 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
- MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE MOST CRITICAL COMBINATION
OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COME ON MONDAY. PLEASE OBEY LOCAL
BURN BANS AS ANY NEW FIRES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WE'LL BE WATCHING THE TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND WIND
TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO SEE IF
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED AT ALL.
IT IS A BIT CONCERNING TO SEE THE 00Z MET AND 06Z MAV MOS
GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY HAVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS TLH
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 21 UTC. HOWEVER, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT HEATING AND MIXING SLIGHTLY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER OR NORTHEAST FORECAST ZONES
AROUND 1AM CT THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY KEOX WEATHER RADAR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER
IN UNDER AN EXPANSE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS, BUT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NOT DETER ANY FIRE CONCERNS.
AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN, AND CONDITIONS WARM SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT BEYOND MORNING LOWS, EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO STEADILY
DROP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS AND WIND GUSTS STEADILY
INCREASE. THESE GUSTS, APPROACHING 20 TO 25 MPH TODAY, WILL DRIVE
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONCERNS FROM DEVELOPING. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL
CONCERNS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
TODAY, MOSTLY WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY, AND STRONG 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS IS HIGHEST.
ELSEWHERE, DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN AND EXTREME CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD LEAD TO NEW FIRE STARTS AS FIRES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY
TO RAPIDLY SPREAD.
FOR TONIGHT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES FILTERING IN WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THAT IS USUALLY EXPECTED. WHILE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST OVERNIGHT, EXTREME CARE
SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, AND MOST EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DESPITE IMPROVING WINDS, WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 MPH ALONG WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND
15 TO 20% IS EXPECTED. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ALONE MIGHT NOT
USUALLY SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING, FUELS ON THE GROUND ARE AT
NEAR-RECORD DRY LEVELS AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY NEW FIRES
TO SPREAD RAPIDLY, EVEN IN CONDITIONS THAT DON'T QUITE MEET OUR
CRITERIA EXACTLY. ADDITIONALLY, MANY NEW FIRE STARTS RECENTLY HAVE
SHOWN RAPID GROWTH AND RESISTANCE TO CONTROL PER FUELS AND FIRE
BEHAVIOR INTELLIGENCE FROM THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION
CENTER. ALL OF THE ABOVE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
MONDAY BEFORE IMPROVING OVERNIGHT AS WE SEE BETTER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WON'T BE ENOUGH TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT RAIN UNTIL POTENTIALLY LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAYBE MOVES IN. FOR
NOW, HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING, BUT IT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, WE'RE STILL EXPECTING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
A FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS TODAY AND WILL BRING THICK CLOUDS,
SPOTTY SHOWERS, AND ABRUPT SHIFT OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT DHN THIS MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS. A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA WAS INTRO'D FOR
DHN/ECP/ABY. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN ARE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS
MORNING THRU THE AFTN - GUSTS OF 20-25-KTS WILL BE COMMON. WINDS
SLACKEN OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING TO ABOUT 10 KTS AS CLOUD
COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH,
THOUGH A NIGHTTIME WIND SURGE WILL KEEP BREEZES STRONG WELL INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON MONDAY EVENING, AND A FRESH
TO POSSIBLY STRONG EVENING SURGE IS EXPECTED. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED THIS AFTERNOON
BY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, AND RH WILL BE
DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE CONCERNS TODAY, BUT RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT WHERE
THE CONFIDENCE IN LOWEST HUMIDITY OVERLAPS WITH STRONG POST-FRONTAL
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
POOR NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
ON MONDAY, THE HEART OF THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMMONLY IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND SUPPORT
EXTREMELY HIGH DISPERSIONS. FULL SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY WARM LATE
APRIL TEMPERATURES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY WHERE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOUCH 15 MPH. THE
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD THIS UPDATE TO NOW
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE
HIGH, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. HUMIDITY WILL START TO RECOVER OUR FLORIDA DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SLOW RECOVERY NORTH OF THE FLORIDA STATE LINE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
NEITHER DROUGHT RELIEF NOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ANY RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE
IS NOW A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT SATURDAY.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 52 80 52 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 73 54 80 56 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 70 49 78 50 / 30 0 0 0
ALBANY 73 49 78 49 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 78 50 80 49 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 54 82 48 / 10 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 57 77 60 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ120-122>131-144>148.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ068-069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
UPDATE...DVD
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page