936
FXUS62 KTAE 192316
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
716 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
- MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE MOST CRITICAL COMBINATION
OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COME ON MONDAY. PLEASE OBEY LOCAL
BURN BANS AS ANY NEW FIRES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE,
NOTABLY THE GFS AND EURO, ARE COMING IN A BIT COOLER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THAT'S BANKING ON THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT, WHICH IS
HAPPENING SLOWLY, AND WINDS CALMING OVERNIGHT, NOT SO MUCH. GIVEN
SOME OF THAT UNCERTAINTY, LEFT THE FORECAST AS-IS WITH THE UPDATE.
THAT SAID, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, OR LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
THERE IS CURRENTLY A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW
FOR CRITICALLY LOW RHS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
NOW POST-FRONTAL, DRY NORTHERLY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE, AT LEAST AT THE LOWER LEVELS, TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND
AND MIXING OUT THE DRY AIR. BY THIS WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL, HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME DON'T LOOK
PROMISING WHEN IT COMES TO IMPROVING ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT, WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME A BIT
GUSTY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING
IN THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH, THOUGH A NIGHTTIME WIND
SURGE WILL KEEP BREEZES STRONG INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY ON MONDAY EVENING, AND A FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG EVENING
SURGE IS EXPECTED. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. RH WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS THE REST OF TODAY, BUT RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN LOWEST HUMIDITY
OVERLAPS WITH STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS. WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
FILTER IN TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE POOR NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
TOMORROW, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMMONLY BE IN THE 15-20
PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH
AND SUPPORT EXTREMELY HIGH DISPERSIONS. FULL TO NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE,
SEASONABLY WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT ON MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING BEYOND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH, BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. RAIN CHANCES
POTENTIALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, ONGOING DROUGHT
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 54 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 48 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 47 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 50 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 53 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 56 77 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120-122>131-
144>148.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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