151
FXUS62 KTAE 201333
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. PLEASE OBEY
LOCAL BURN BANS AS ANY NEW FIRES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY SPREAD. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON
- SOME RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE 4 RADARS IN OUR AREA HAVE BEEN SHOWING
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE 1,000-2,000 FOOT LAYER OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS. THIS WIND WILL SOON MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH, FANNING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT TODAY. THE RED FLAG
WARNING STILL LOOKS ENTIRELY VALID. PLUS, THE RH AT OUR OFFICE AT
7 AM WAS 46 PERCENT (40 PERCENT NOW), SO THE POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY THIS MORNING MEANS FINE FUELS WILL BE STARTING THE DAY
OUT QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL, SINCE THERE WAS NO BENEFIT
FROM MORNING DEW.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE WILDFIRE OVER CLINCH COUNTY IS SPREADING SMOKE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES. UPWIND OF THESE
COUNTIES, THE VISIBILITY AT LIVE OAK IS 2 1/2 MILES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH) AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT CRITICAL VALUES
(15-20%) WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY. WHILE THE WIND
COMPONENT OF OUR FORECAST MIGHT NOT EXPLICITLY MEET OUR RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WHERE
ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD. THE MAIN COMPONENT DRIVING THESE CONCERNS, ALONG WITH THE
WEATHER, IS THE HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS (AS EVIDENCED BY RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD ERC VALUES) ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH FUELS AND FIRE
BEHAVIOR ADVISORY INTELLIGENCE FROM THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE
CENTER.
WE URGE FOLKS TO BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS TO AVOID ANYTHING THAT
COULD GENERATE SPARKS, OR GENERATE FLAMES. NEW FIRES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP OVER RECENT DAYS AND THEY HAVE SPREAD QUICKLY.
ADDITIONALLY PLEASE LISTEN TO ANY LOCAL BURN BANS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE OVER THE REGION IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. UNFORTUNATELY, MANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
SOME RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
UNTIL WE GET RAIN, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN EACH DAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. HOWEVER, EXTREME CAUTION IN REGARDS TO FIRE
NEEDS TO REMAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
UPPER CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT SINCE THE 6Z PACKAGE, SO SKY COVER
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCT. PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NE WINDS THIS AFTN, THEN GOING LGT/CALM LATER
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN TODAY. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND FREQUENT 20 TO 25
MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN RECORD DRY FUELS, HUMIDITY AROUND 15
TO 20% (LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY AROUND 10%), AND FORECAST WINDS A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR
TODAY.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING BEYOND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH, BUT WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. RAIN
CHANCES POTENTIALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, ONGOING DROUGHT
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 51 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 51 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 80 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 48 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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