101
FXUS62 KTAE 201946
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
PLEASE OBEY LOCAL BURN BANS AS ANY NEW FIRES WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO RAPIDLY SPREAD. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOME RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
THERE IS CURRENTLY A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR CRITICALLY LOW RHS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, SEVERAL WILDFIRES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
OBEY LOCAL BURN BANS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
NOW POST-FRONTAL, DRY NORTHERLY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE, AT LEAST AT THE LOWER LEVELS, TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND AND
MIXING OUT THE DRY AIR. BY THIS WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL,
HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME DON'T LOOK PROMISING WHEN IT
COMES TO IMPROVING ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY
AND WARM WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT, WARMING INTO THE
LOW 60S BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, DUE IN LARGE PART TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS. INITIALLY BREEZY NE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY GO LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT LIGHTER,
INCREASING TO ONLY ABOUT 5-7KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A FRESH EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATER
TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE
GEORGIA COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
GIVEN RECORD DRY FUELS, HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 20% (LOCALIZED AREAS
POSSIBLY AROUND 10%), AND FORECAST WINDS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR TODAY.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING BEYOND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE
HIGH, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS
TO RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, ONGOING DROUGHT
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 55 82 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 50 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 49 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 47 86 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 60 76 64 75 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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