894
FXUS62 KTAE 211738
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY, ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS REMAIN DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. THESE
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE FOLLOW THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL BURN BANS AND OFFICIALS.
- RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURNING THIS WEEKEND BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT FORECAST AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
COMPARED TO MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THUS RED FLAG
(CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY, ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (AROUND 15-20%) AND RECORD DRY FUELS ON THE GROUND.
PLEASE SEEK OUT LOCAL OFFICIALS ADVICE REGARDING ANY BURN BANS AND
LIKE YESTERDAY, AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS OR
INTRODUCE FLAMES.
FOR TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL SEE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRAVERSE OVER THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE EAST AND THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT'LL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR HUMIDITIES TO
CLIMB TO LEVELS THAT ALLEVIATE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKS END. SOME RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL, SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEVING
RAINFALLS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND WE'LL BE BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, PRECLUDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
THICK HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD ELIMINATING ANY LOW STRATUS.
THE MAIN THING TO LOOK FOR WILL BE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. THE
BIGGEST FIRE IS CURRENTLY BURNING ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF THE VLD
TERMINAL, AND SMOKE IS FLOWING AWAY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF
SURFACE SMOKE DOES NOT AFFECT VLD, THERE COULD EASILY BE OPAQUE
SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AT VLD MOST OF ALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A FRESH EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATER
TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF
THE GEORGIA COAST. AFTER THURSDAY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASE, POTENTIALLY TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS, AHEAD OF A
FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
TODAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FORECAST WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER, CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED AGAIN AND WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 15 TO 20% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
WHERE A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUING.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL STILL DROP TO AROUND 30-40% MOST
AFTERNOONS. RAIN CHANCES DO APPEAR TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS,
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY,
DISPERSIONS AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD
FOSTER FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, ONGOING DROUGHT
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OR WORSEN. SOME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT
THIS TIME TO BRING MUCH (IF ANY) DROUGHT RELIEF.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 61 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 57 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 63 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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