952
FXUS62 KTAE 212323
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
723 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. THESE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BURN BANS AND OFFICIALS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN SLIDING TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-WEEK
AS THIS OCCURS, ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND TO
COMMENCE, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOW-MID 60S BY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY. PLEASE SEEK OUT
LOCAL OFFICIALS ADVICE REGARDING ANY BURN BANS AND AVOID ANY
ACTIVITIES THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS OR INTRODUCE FLAMES.
FOLLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE'S EXIST, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEVELOPING STORM TRACK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE AXIS OF STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
STILL, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS WORKING IN OUR FAVOR IN TERMS
OF GETTING RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
MENTIONED PRIOR, DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
THIS WEEK WILL ALSO AID DAILY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT, ADDING ANOTHER
SOURCE OF MECHANICAL LIFT FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FINALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION STARTING THIS
WEEKEND WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THESE COMBINED FACTORS, POPS BEGIN ENTERING THE FORECAST AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THIS WILL BE CLOSER
TO GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL/SOUTH-EAST U.S THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPECIFICS ON WHAT EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT THE AREA IS UNCLEAR AS OF NOW. REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT - THOUGH ANY RAINFALL IS
WELCOME GIVEN THE LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN THING TO LOOK FOR WILL BE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. THE BIGGEST
FIRE IS CURRENTLY BURNING ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF THE VLD TERMINAL.
SMOKE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE TLH TERMINAL.
EVEN IF SURFACE SMOKE DOES NOT AFFECT TLH OR VLD, THERE COULD EASILY
BE OPAQUE SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATER
TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE
GEORGIA COAST, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN TODAY
DESPITE WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS, PRIMARILY DUE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RHS. DISPERSIONS ARE VERY HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE BARRING RED FLAG
CRITERIA FROM EXPLICITLY BEING MET. DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO EASE SOME OF
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER BOTH QUICKLY REBOUND BY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS WILL
SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES, ACTING
TO FURTHER GRADUALLY EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
WITH A CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN THIS WEEKEND -HOWEVER
ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
OUTSIDE OF A LOW-END CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS
FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THUS ONGOING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN THROUGH
THEN. MORE NOTABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO ENTER THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STILL, CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT
THIS TIME TO BRING MUCH (IF ANY) DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 62 79 60 81 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 58 83 57 84 / 0 10 0 10
ALBANY 57 83 57 85 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 64 75 64 77 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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