688
FXUS62 KTAE 221447
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. WHILE CONCERNS WILL DECREASE SOME
THROUGH THE WEEK, PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BURN BANS
AND OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES TO OUR EAST IS FILTERING OUT SUNLIGHT THIS
MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 MPH BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE STEADY INLAND
PROGRESS TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (AROUND 25-35%) AND
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY
FUELS ON THE GROUND AND FORECAST HUMIDITIES. SOME OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE COULD HELP GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ASIDE FROM THAT, NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TONIGHT, MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES AND IT'S POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST, AND SEVERAL WEEK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE, ALONG WITH HEATING OF THE DAY, COULD
HELP GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWER DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK DOESN'T REALLY BRING PROMISING SIGNS FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IN AREAS THAT ARE FORTUNATE TO RECEIVE SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
CONTINUED VFR CONDS FCST THRU THE PERIOD. THICK UPPER CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN SITES WHILE AN AFTN SEABREEZE INDUCES A
SOUTHERLY WIND AT ECP/TLH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z
INVOF OF THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF GIVEN THE SPOTTY COVERAGE. WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN TODAY
DESPITE WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS, PRIMARILY DUE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW AFTERNOON RHS (AROUND 25-35%). DISPERSIONS WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT
REACH HIGH DISPERSION CRITERIA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS WILL SLOWLY
RISE EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES, ACTING TO
GRADUALLY EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH A
CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THESE
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
OUTSIDE OF A LOW-END CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS
FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THUS ONGOING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN THROUGH
THEN. MORE NOTABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO ENTER THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL, CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO BRING MUCH (IF ANY) DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 58 85 59 / 10 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 80 61 81 62 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 83 58 84 57 / 20 0 10 0
ALBANY 83 57 85 58 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 84 56 87 58 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 57 86 57 / 10 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 75 63 77 65 / 10 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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