985
FXUS62 KTAE 221905
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. WHILE CONCERNS WILL DECREASE SOME
THROUGH THE WEEK, PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BURN BANS
AND OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
DUE TO WILDFIRES TO OUR EAST, THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED SMOKE
OVER OUR REGION, CONTRIBUTING TO HAZY SKIES TODAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO EFFECT FOR THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT ALLOW
FOR CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY IN THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND AL WIREGRASS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
INCREASING OUR HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWERING OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH PROMISING, THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH
RAIN TO GREATLY ALTER THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. OUR ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA COUNTIES MAY RECEIVE AROUND A 1/3 TO HALF AN INCH.
HOWEVER, LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DUE TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA
BREEZE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AT OR ABOVE 6K FT FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME OF THAT SMOKE MAY LOWER AND DRIFT OVER VALDOSTA
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST,
BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ANF SOUTH OF
I-10 AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DAILY
SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
REGION, INCREASING MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
A WETTING RAIN, PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA
COUNTIES. UNTIL THEN, WE WILL EXPERIENCE PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR GA DISTRICTS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGH DISPERSIONS BEFORE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER FORECAST AMOUNTS DO NOT
APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO BRING MUCH (IF ANY) DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 84 58 86 / 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 60 80 62 80 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 56 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 10
ALBANY 56 85 58 86 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 57 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 86 58 86 / 0 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 76 65 77 / 0 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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