735
FXUS62 KTAE 231023
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS. WHILE CONCERNS WILL DECREASE SOME
THROUGH THE WEEK, PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BURN BANS
AND OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH WHILE ALONG OUR COASTLINES, A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION AND MUCH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE SEABREEZE, A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT LIKE
WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AND IN THE MID 80S. FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30 TO 40% WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS SHOULD TEMPER FIRE CONCERNS SOMEWHAT
COMPARED TO RECENT AFTERNOONS.
FOR TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE. SEVERAL
IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPCOMING
PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY LEAD TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (AS NOTED BY RECENT 6-10 CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS),
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT OWNING TO THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON ENSEMBLE AVERAGES
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT BRING MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE. SEVERAL
IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPCOMING
PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY LEAD TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (AS NOTED BY RECENT 6-10 CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS),
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT OWNING TO THE MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON ENSEMBLE AVERAGES
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT BRING MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS FCST WITH LGT/VRB NOCTURNAL WINDS AND AN
AFTN SEABREEZE. THE LATTER IS ACCOUNTED FOR AT ALL TERMINALS WHERE
GUSTS OF 15 OR MORE KTS ARE POSSIBLE - SOUTHERLY AT ECP/TLH/DHN;
VRB AT ABY/VLD. LASTLY, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INVOF
ECP/DHN, SO A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA WAS INTRO'D AT THOSE SITES IN
THE 18-22Z TIME FRAME. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DAILY SEABREEZES WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY INCREASES ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY DUE TO DRY
FUELS, HIGHER DISPERSIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER, HUMIDITIES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD IMPROVEMENTS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
EXPECT DAILY SEA BREEZES AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THE
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION, INCREASING MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A WETTING
RAIN, PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA COUNTIES.
PERIODS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
OUTSIDE OF A LOW-END CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS
FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THUS ONGOING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN THROUGH
THEN. MORE NOTABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO ENTER THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL, CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME TO BRING MUCH (IF ANY) DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 58 86 61 / 10 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 80 62 81 66 / 20 0 10 20
DOTHAN 84 56 86 61 / 30 10 10 20
ALBANY 85 59 87 61 / 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 86 57 87 60 / 10 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 86 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 63 79 66 / 10 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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