210
FXUS62 KTAE 231938
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES IN OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS FROM 0.25-0.5" ARE POSSIBLE.
-PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERNMOST AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S. POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SOME SEABREEZE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
THEN, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL
PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEAVING US IN AN AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE VERY FEW
SHOWERS TOMORROW, WITH OUR HIGHEST POPS AROUND 10% IN OUR ALABAMA
AND INLAND PANHANDLE COUNTIES. CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RHS FALLING TO 30-40%
AREAWIDE, FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY. SOME GUSTIER WINDS
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA IN THE EARLY
MORNING, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE ALMOST UNIFORMLY SUGGESTS IT WILL BREAK
APART BEFORE IT REACHES OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES, LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE AL AND PARTS OF SW GA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
ASSUMING ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT ON TIME, THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POP-UP CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RISE TO AROUND 60% IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR CWA, WHILE POPS IN THE BIG BEND REGION AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA
ARE AROUND 30-40%. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED POP-UP CONVECTION IS
THEN LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40%
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AROUND THE MID-80S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
OCCASIONAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, BUT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEE RAIN CHANCES UP TO AROUND 40% INLAND. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER, AND THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND THE MID-60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFFECTING THE
ECP AND DHN TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS NOTED WITH A
PROB30. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP IN TOWARDS ECP AROUND DAYBREAK AND
LIFT AROUND 13/14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PREVAIL THROUGH NOON SATURDAY, BECOMING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. DAILY
SEABREEZES WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARILY GUSTY WINDS AT THE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
MINRH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS ON THE
HEELS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THAT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MINRH VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REMAIN OVER 40 PERCENT
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS THANKS TO DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCES OF A
WETTING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
ARE INCREASING FOR SATURDAY AS A CLUSTER OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES ON THROUGH. PERIODS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WITH TODAY'S UPDATED DROUGHT MONITOR, ALL OF WALTON COUNTY, FL, IS
NOW IN D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT, MEANING OUR ENTIRE CWA IS NOW IN EITHER
D3 OR D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT. D4 AREAS EXPANDED IN ALL DIRECTIONS,
PRIMARILY FURTHER INTO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ONGOING SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
THE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN THROUGH THAT TIME.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ADDS UP TO AT MOST TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN SE AL AND OUR NORTHERNMOST GA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
BULLISH FOR WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS, SUGGESTING A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH IS MORE LIKELY. POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK COULD PROVIDE SOME SMALL DROUGHT RELIEF, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY GIVEN CURRENT
FORECAST RAIN TOTALS.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 40
PANAMA CITY 61 80 66 80 / 0 10 10 50
DOTHAN 56 86 61 83 / 0 10 10 60
ALBANY 58 86 61 85 / 0 10 10 60
VALDOSTA 57 87 59 88 / 0 10 0 30
CROSS CITY 57 85 57 86 / 0 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 63 77 66 78 / 0 0 0 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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