509
FXUS62 KTAE 241009
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR
ALABAMA, GEORGIA AND INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES, WHERE
WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.5"
RANGE.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WESTWARD IN THE MORNING, THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND, WITH DEW
POINTS PUSHING INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD TOO DRY, DIURNAL HEATING WILL ATTEMPT TO FORCE
A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE'S A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SHORT-LIVED POP UP THUNDERSTORM.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
FAIRLY CHAOTIC MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY, PV, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT DETACHES FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DIVES
SOUTHEAST. THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS "PIECE OF ENERGY" MAY BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, WHEN
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TOWARDS
A POTENTIAL MCS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IF THE MESOSCALE
DOESN'T QUITE LINE UP, WE COULD STILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THIS HOWEVER DOESN'T MEAN WE SHOULD EXPECT A TON OF
RAINFALL, WE'LL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN INCH WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO RIPPLES IN THE
FLOW, FORCING WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WITHOUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THESE RIPPLES ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING DAILY SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND BEYOND, A
LULL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS BRIEF RIDGING GETS NUDGED EASTWARD
BY TUESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY PATCHY
FOG AROUND ECP EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL FEATURE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
MINRH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TODAY, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MINRH VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVER 40
PERCENT STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS THANKS TO DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCES OF A WETTING
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA ARE
INCREASING FOR SATURDAY AS A CLUSTER OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ON THROUGH. PERIODS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A COUPLE CHANCES TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT TO IMPROVING ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ISOLATED AREAS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 61 85 65 / 0 0 40 30
PANAMA CITY 80 66 81 67 / 0 10 40 30
DOTHAN 86 61 84 64 / 10 10 70 40
ALBANY 86 61 86 63 / 0 10 50 60
VALDOSTA 86 59 88 63 / 0 0 30 40
CROSS CITY 85 57 86 62 / 10 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 77 66 78 67 / 0 0 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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