163
FXUS62 KTAE 241754
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR
ALABAMA, GEORGIA AND INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES, WHERE
WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.75"
RANGE.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
TONIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, MAINLY FROM THE COAST INLAND AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. SOME MODEST VORTICITY ADVECTION, COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP KICK OFF SOME
CONVECTION. AN MCS FORMING IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF
THINGS LINE UP. EITHER WAY, DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY. RAINFALL TOTALS DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AND WON'T DO MUCH TO IMPROVE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SIT AROUND 60, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING
SAID, FORCING SEEMS WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, SO COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, LEADING TO GENERALLY QUIET AND FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW.
BY MONDAY, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BECAUSE OF SOME
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID
60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, AND THAT TREND LARGELY CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED AT DHN, ECP, AND TLH WITH MVFR TO IFR. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
BY LATE SAT MORNING, EXCEPT FOR A PROB30 AT ECP AND DHN FOR MVFR W/
SHRA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
LIGHT AND GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A TEMPORARY TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK FRONT
BRUSHING BY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN
ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER FRONT NEARS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF NEXT WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE
WESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
MINRH VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REMAIN GENERALLY OVER 40
PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS IS THANKS TO DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA ARE INCREASING FOR SATURDAY AS A CLUSTER OR TWO
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ON THROUGH. PERIODS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS PULLS DOWN DRIER AIR OVER OUR
GEORGIA DISTRICTS MONDAY WITH MINRH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT ALONG WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. THOSE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE MINRH VALUES EXCEEDING 40
PERCENT AS THE DRIER AIR ISN'T QUITE FORECAST TO MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH OR WEST AS OF NOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY
BRUSH OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OR WEST. NEVERTHELESS, RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST! RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN AN INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK INCH OR TWO IN ANY GIVEN DAY. THESE FORECAST RAIN TOTALS
AREN'T ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 85 65 87 / 0 40 30 30
PANAMA CITY 66 81 67 82 / 10 40 30 30
DOTHAN 61 84 64 86 / 10 70 40 40
ALBANY 61 86 63 86 / 10 50 60 30
VALDOSTA 59 88 63 89 / 0 30 40 30
CROSS CITY 57 86 62 86 / 0 10 10 30
APALACHICOLA 66 78 67 79 / 0 20 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-
112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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