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FXUS62 KTAE 051743
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO ALBANY, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 20% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. BE SURE
TO GIVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU
IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
COLD FRONT NUDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF, WHICH ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO ROLL OVER US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1.0" OF RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. IN FACT,
THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM (20% TO 40%) CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 2.0" IN THOSE AREAS! UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN DOES LOOK TO
DRY UP SOME AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAIN IS
STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR Y'ALL! JUST NOT AS MUCH COMPARED TO YOUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN H5 JET STREAK THAT'LL BE MOVING THROUGH. A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE PRESENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
PUSHING EAST OF US THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADD IN THE BETTER LIFT
PASSING WELL NORTH OF US AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE CLOUD COVER
AND/OR MORNING SHOWERS MEANS THE THREAT IS INCREDIBLY CONDITIONAL.
THAT SAID, SPEED SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY ROBUST ALONG WITH PRETTY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED OUR AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA, AND THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
PREVAILING TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS MOVE IN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. WHERE THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT THESE RESTRICTIONS IN THE
PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL SITES, BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF VLD. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT BY 14 OR 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARRIVE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS
BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY AS MINRH RECOVERS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE 45 PERCENT THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY AND BORDERLINE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY AND CRAWLS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WAVES OF
RAIN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT
IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ANOTHER
IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. BY THE
TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A SOLID 1.0" TO 2.0" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS TAPER OFF THE MORE SOUTH AND EAST
YOU GO ACROSS OUR AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 40
PANAMA CITY 67 83 71 83 / 0 0 0 40
DOTHAN 62 87 69 83 / 0 10 20 80
ALBANY 61 89 68 83 / 0 10 20 70
VALDOSTA 62 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 40
CROSS CITY 61 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 67 81 70 82 / 0 0 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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