886
FXUS62 KTAE 052339
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO ALBANY, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 20% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. BE SURE
TO GIVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU
IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND ONGOING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY STILL EXIST WITH DRY
FUELS, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH MOST OTHER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT HAS EXITED THE REGION BY THEN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME
MODERATE LLWS COULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREATS (IF ANY) BEING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES REMAINING OVERHEAD. THIS
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY TO MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, ENJOY SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY IMPACTED ARE FROM TLH-ABY-DHN WHERE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 09-13Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS
MID MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARRIVE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING 1 TO 3
FEET LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FACILITATE A MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH MINIMUM RH IMPROVING TO ABOVE 45 PERCENT BY
THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BREEZY AND BORDERLINE HOT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
15 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY AND CRAWLS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WAVES OF
RAIN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT
IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ANOTHER
IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. BY THE
TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A SOLID 1.0" TO 2.0" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS TAPER OFF THE MORE SOUTH AND EAST
YOU GO ACROSS OUR AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 30
PANAMA CITY 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 40
DOTHAN 62 88 68 83 / 0 10 10 80
ALBANY 60 89 66 84 / 0 0 10 80
VALDOSTA 60 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 40
CROSS CITY 60 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 68 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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