573
FXUS62 KTAE 061415
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO TIFTON, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 20% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
BE SURE TO GIVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT
OF YOU IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE FOG IN THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND HAS LIFTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTERNOON. NO FURTHER
UPDATES REQUIRED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR FORECAST TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND SLOWS TO A CRAWL OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE FORECAST AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF
THE BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
FOR THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME
HAIL AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. THIS
RAIN WILL BE INCREDIBLY BENEFICIAL AS WE ATTEMPT TO CLAW OUR WAY OUT
OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT. CHANCES FOR OVER 1.0" OF RAIN OVER THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 60% TO 80% FROM
A LINE ALONG AND NORTHWEST FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO TIFTON, GA;
LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT LINE.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING EVEN MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND IS OVER, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1" TO 3"
ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND, WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1.0". WHILE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND, A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40+ KNOTS.
THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY
THANKS TO AN H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY BEFORE
DRIER WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR PREVAILING BY MID-MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AFFECT ABY AND DHN NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE FORECAST TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARRIVE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT'LL STALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS KEEPS OFF AND ONE
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MUCH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STALLED FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS MINRH IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 45 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BREEZY AND BORDERLINE HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER THE REGION, WHICH HELPS KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WAVES OF RAIN STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SOLID 1.0" TO 2.0" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN
1" TO 3" WITH LESSER TOTALS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 67 88 68 / 0 10 50 10
PANAMA CITY 82 72 82 69 / 0 10 40 10
DOTHAN 87 69 82 62 / 0 30 90 20
ALBANY 89 68 82 62 / 0 30 90 10
VALDOSTA 90 66 88 66 / 0 0 50 10
CROSS CITY 88 65 87 71 / 0 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 80 72 83 71 / 0 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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