810
FXUS62 KTAE 061917
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO TIFTON, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 20% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BE SURE TO GIVE
PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BEFORE
LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW STORMS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEARBY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH
AND FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL TO ACCUMULATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND. THANKFULLY, THIS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO HELP
WITH THE ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SOME
MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IF HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GUSTS RELAXING SOME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. CEILING WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARRIVE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT'LL STALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS
KEEPS OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS MUCH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH MINRH INCREASING TO ABOVE 45 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS MAY LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST AND
EASTERN FL BIG BEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NW
EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
STALLS. THIS FRONT WILL HELP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER
US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WAVES OF RAIN STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SOLID 1.0" TO 2.0" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN
1" TO 3" WITH LESSER TOTALS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 89 67 84 / 10 60 20 20
PANAMA CITY 72 82 67 81 / 20 60 20 30
DOTHAN 69 80 60 75 / 40 90 10 30
ALBANY 68 80 60 75 / 40 100 10 20
VALDOSTA 65 88 64 81 / 0 80 20 20
CROSS CITY 66 87 70 90 / 10 20 10 10
APALACHICOLA 72 82 70 79 / 10 30 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MERRIFIELD/REESE
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD/REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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