399
FXUS62 KTAE 071353
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO TIFTON, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 1% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. BE SURE TO GIVE
PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU IF YOU
ENCOUNTER ANY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY TO HOPEFULLY ACCURATELY SHOW THE TREND
FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO FURTHER UPDATES APPEARED NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE REGION EXCEPT THE SE FL BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT RICK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DEW
POINTS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 40+ KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. ADD IN THE 35-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING EAST AND THIS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.
ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. YES, WE'RE IN A
DROUGHT, BUT SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A SWATH OF
2" TO 4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. IF THIS RAIN
WERE TO FALL OVER URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS, IT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THE LINE IS FORECAST TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AND WEAKEN SOME AS IT TRIES
TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WEAKENS BECAUSE THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS QUICKLY EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS PUSHING EAST A DECENT CLIP.
ADD IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE
LINE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. STILL, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 1.7" TODAY WITH
THE FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN
MOSTLY FIZZLES OUT BEFORE CLEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF,
ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOWS
TAKE A DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO SAG A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT, WHICH LOWERS FRIDAY MORNING'S RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHTLY. THE STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO EBB NORTH LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING A WAVE OF RAIN
TO ROLL ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER
WAVE OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY, AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND EVEN SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DEGRADED DURING STORMS WITH LOWERED
VSBYS IN HEAVIER STORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LATER THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL COME ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. HIGH DISPERSIONS, WARM TEMPERATURES,
AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAFAYETTE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND INLAND DIXIE
COUNTIES TODAY. ADDITIONALLY FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A LOW, 10
PERCENT, CHANCE THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCE MINRH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERING ABOVE
50 PERCENT. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
BUT DISPERSIONS SHOULD BE LOWER THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WETTING RAIN IS FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AS
THE LINE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS THOSE DISTRICTS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS COMBINED WITH AMPLE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT
STALLS BUT AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE FRONTS STALLS OUT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY SHOULD ANY OF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS VERIFY, ESPECIALLY OVER MORE URBAN OR LOW-LYING
AREAS.
BENEFICIAL RAIN ARRIVES TODAY AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) IN
EXCESS OF 1.7" AND FLOW PARALLEL TO A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL OF 1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
THAT STRETCH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
THERE'S ALSO A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING 2.0",
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER. HOWEVER, THOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET MUCH RAIN, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10"
THAT'S JUST FROM TODAY'S RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT STALLING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT. IT'LL INCH NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THAT CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.0" TO 3.0" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
10. MEANWHILE, THE PARCHED SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE THAN 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 66 84 66 / 50 10 30 30
PANAMA CITY 82 67 81 68 / 50 10 40 30
DOTHAN 81 61 76 62 / 80 10 20 50
ALBANY 82 60 77 62 / 90 10 0 40
VALDOSTA 88 64 82 64 / 60 20 10 30
CROSS CITY 87 70 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 82 70 79 69 / 20 10 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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