433
FXUS62 KTAE 072123
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 518 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (60% TO 80%) NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY, FL TO TIFTON, GA AND TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 1% IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY IS DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY
WANES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FORCING FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
GRADUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND/OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, ELEVATED WESTERLIES
AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ELEVATED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO A FEW AREAS OF STRONG, POSSIBLY
SEVERE, STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LIFT
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES.
LIKE FRIDAY, A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY.
MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE FINAL TROUGH
PASSAGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGS QUIETER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH, MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF ECP/TLH/VLD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF ECP/TLH/VLD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
FIRE CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
MOIST PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS.
MAIN CONCERNS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LOW DISPERSIONS DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BRING THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARDS INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AL COUNTIES AND SOUTHWEST GA COUNTIES TO
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND BY
THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM NOW INTO MONDAY EVENING. THESE
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT, BUT NOT
LIKELY ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 84 66 82 / 20 30 30 80
PANAMA CITY 68 82 69 80 / 10 30 50 90
DOTHAN 61 75 61 77 / 10 10 50 90
ALBANY 60 76 61 77 / 10 0 50 80
VALDOSTA 66 82 65 82 / 20 10 30 80
CROSS CITY 71 90 69 87 / 30 20 10 40
APALACHICOLA 71 80 71 79 / 20 20 30 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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